1971—2022年宁德市暖冬现象特征分析  

An analysis of characteristics of warm winter phenomenon in Ningde City

作　　者：阮翠冰 陈小英 黄文霖 RUAN Cui-bing;CHEN Xiao-ying;HUANG Wen-lin(Ningde Meteorological Bureau,Ningde,Fujian 352100,China)

机构地区：[1]宁德市气象局,福建宁德352100

出　　处：《宁德师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期86-91,共6页Journal of Ningde Normal University(Natural Science)

摘　　要：利用宁德市9个国家基本气象站1971—2022年冬季气温数据,根据中国国家标准《暖冬等级》对宁德市暖冬进行定义和等级划分,通过气候倾向率、M-K突变检验和小波分析对近52a宁德市暖冬现象进行特征分析.结果表明,在1971—2022年宁德市冬季平均气温呈显著上升趋势,每10a增温0.305℃,并存在突变现象,突变点接近1998年;宁德9个单站暖冬指数均呈显著性上升趋势,共出现7~12次单站弱暖冬和3~5次单站强暖冬,山区多于沿海,多发生在1998年之后;宁德区域暖冬指数呈上升趋势,显著性水平一般,共出现11次区域弱暖冬和4次区域强暖冬,其中区域弱暖冬多出现在1998年之后,区域强暖冬出现在2001年之后;经过小波分析可初步判定宁德区域暖冬现象在1998年之后大概以8a为第一主周期,2~3a为第二主周期.With the utilization of winter temperature data from 9 national basic weather observatories between 1971-2022 in Ningde City,the warm winter threshold is defined and classified based on Chinese National Stan⁃dards named“Warm Winter Classification”.The characteristics of 52 a Ningde City warm winter phenomenon is analyzed on the basis of climate inclination rate,M-K mutation test and wavelet analysis.Results of the average winter temperature in Ningde City show significant increasing trends.The temperature has increased 0.305℃every 10 years and a mutation exists,the tipping point occurs in 1998.The single station warm winter index among all 9 stations in Ningde City demonstrates a remarkable increasing trend.There are 7-12 times of warm winter and 3~5 times extremely warm winter phenomenon,more in mountain area than coastal,mainly happens after 1998.The regional warm winter index indicates a rising trend with a medium significance level.There are 11 weak regional warm winters and 4 extreme warm winters in total,weak regional warm winters have mainly happened after 1998 while extreme warm winters after 2001.Conclusion:Through the wavelet analysis,the re⁃gional warm winter in Ningde City has shown 8 a as first main cycle,and 2-3 a as second main cycle approxi⁃mately after 1998.

关 键 词：区域暖冬 冬季气温 暖冬指数 单站暖冬 宁德市 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]