基于联盟理论的美国“印太”情报合作体系研究  

A Study of the U.S."Indo-Pacific" Intelligence Cooperation System Based on Alliance Theory

作　　者：李益斌 李浩洋 Li Yibin;Li Haoyang(Institute for Central Asia Studies,School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所、兰州大学政治与国际关系学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2023年第4期6-13,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于大数据驱动的未来十年中国周边恐怖主义风险及应对研究”的阶段性成果(编号:22CGJ001);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费重点研究基地建设项目“大国中亚政策调整与‘一带一路’建设”资助(编号:2022jbkyjd001)。

摘　　要：[研究目的]近年来,美国大力推进“印太战略”,并将其关注点放在情报领域,试图升级“印太”情报合作体系,对此问题的研究有助于进一步分析中国国家安全环境。[研究方法]基于联盟理论构建什么是联盟、联盟形成的原因和逻辑、联盟的困境分析框架。美国试行升级的“印太”情报合作体系现状包括理念、内容和机制。该情报合作体系形成的逻辑可以从国家利益、内部意识形态、外部威胁三方面探讨。[研究结论]美国“印太”情报合作体系的升级仍存在诸多困难,根本因素是国家利益存在分歧;内部问题,即联盟信任感与对美依赖程度降低;缺乏对外来威胁的同一认知。虽然如此,这种尝试依然对中国造成了严重威胁,需要加强认识与应对。[Research purpose] In recent years,the U.S.has vigorously promoted the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and focused its attention on the intelligence field,attempting to upgrade the "Indo-Pacific" intelligence cooperation system.A study of this issue can help further analyze China's national security environment,which is controversial as to whether the U.S.can successfully upgrade this intelligence cooperation system.[Research method] It constructs a framework for analyzing what an alliance is,the reasons and logic of alliance formation,and the dilemmas of alliances based on alliance theory.The current status of the U.S.pilot upgraded "Indo-Pacific" intelligence cooperation system includes concept,content,and mechanism.The logic of the formation of this intelligence cooperation system can be explored from three aspects:national interests,internal ideology,and external threats.[Research conclusion] There are still many difficulties in upgrading the U.S."Indo-Pacific" intelligence cooperation system:the fundamental factor is the divergence of national interests;internal problems,i.e.,a sense of trust in the alliance and reduced reliance on the U.S.and the lack of a homogeneous perception of foreign threats,also exist.But such attempts to upgrade the "Indo-Pacific" intelligence cooperation system still pose a serious threat to China and require greater awareness and response.

关 键 词：印太战略 情报合作 情报合作体系 联盟理论 美国 

分 类 号：G359[文化科学—情报学]