人口老龄化、扭曲效应与财政可持续性  

Population Aging,Distortion Effect and Fiscal Sustainability

作　　者：邱国庆[1] 杨志安[1] Qiu Guoqing;Yang Zhi'an

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财政与税务）》2022年第11期55-66,共12页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径与政策选择研究”(20&ZD077);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“房地产与地方政府债务风险‘双螺旋效应及其防控研究”(L21CGL016);辽宁省教育厅新型智库项目“辽宁经济高质量发展的财税支持研究”(LZK202003)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化对地方政府财政可持续性的削弱成为防范和化解公共风险的重大隐患。利用2000-2019年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法和中介效应模型,实证考察人口老龄化对地方政府财政可持续性的影响及其传导机制。研究发现:(1)人口老龄化对地方政府财政可持续性具有显著抑制作用;(2)机制识别发现,人口老龄化对地方政府财政可持续性的抑制作用主要通过降低劳动参与率、抑制居民消费率和增加养老负担等路径实现;(3)进一步讨论发现,中央政府对地方政府较高的税收分成激励程度,能够有效缓解人口老龄化对地方政府财政可持续性的负面影响。在人口老龄化加速推进的背景下,增强纵向税收分成激励,健全政府间基本养老事权共同负责机制和增强经济可持续性成为地方政府财政可持续性建设的重要举措。Population aging is an irreversible and deterministic development trend in modern economic society.Among many economic and social problems associated with population aging,the challenges on fiscal sustainability have attracted great attention of the nation and society;weakening fiscal sustainability has become a potential safety hazard on preventing and resolving public risks.The previous studies mainly focus on the relationship between population aging and local government fiscal sustainability.However,they have not revealed the theoretical mechanism and how to mitigate the adverse impact of population aging on local government fiscal sustainability more effectively.In order to reveal the impact mechanism of population aging on local government fiscal sustainability,by integrating population aging and local government fiscal sustainability into the same analysis framework,this paper applies the GMM technique and Mediation Model to examine the impact of Chinese population aging on local government fiscal sustainability based on the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2019.Taking the distortion effect of population aging as the breakthrough point,this paper also reveals the influence mechanism.The results reveal:the deepening of population aging will result in increasing local financial burden.Mechanism analysis has revealed that population aging affects local government fiscal sustainability through reducing labor force participation rate,decreasing household consumption rate and increasing fiscal pension burden.Further discussion found that a deeper incentive level of vertical tax sharing can effectively alleviate the negative effect of population aging on local government fiscal sustainability.Based on the conclusion of empirical analysis,under the background of accelerating population aging,it is suggested to strengthen the incentive of vertical tax sharing,improve the joint responsibility mechanism of basic pension rights between governments and enhance economic sustainability,which serves as an impor

关 键 词：人口老龄化 财政可持续性 地方政府 税收分成 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669.6[政治法律—政治学]