极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标构建及近60年来长江流域极端气候综合分析  

Construction of multi-extreme climate events composite grads index and comprehensive analysis of extreme climate in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：张存杰[1] 肖潺[1] 李帅 珠杰桑布 任玉玉[1] 张思齐[1] 王荣[1] ZHANG CunJie;XIAO Chan;LI Shuai;SANGBU ChuJie;REN YuYu;ZHANG SiQi;WANG Rong(National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Yichang Hubei 443133,China;Meteorological Bureau of Nanmulin County,Tibet Autonomous Region,XigazêXizang 857000,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北宜昌443133 [3]西藏自治区南木林县气象局,西藏日喀则857000

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2023年第3期920-938,共19页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608203);中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704181);国家自然科学基金项目(52109024)资助。

摘　　要：本文利用经过均一化订正的长江流域共669个气象站近60年(1961—2020年)逐日观测资料,采用相对阈值和绝对阈值相结合的极值分析方法,对长江流域近60年极端高温事件、极端低温事件、极端干旱事件和极端降水事件进行识别,分析了年发生频率和线性变化趋势.在此基础上,考虑到全国极端气候事件发生情况,构建了多个极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标,比较客观地给出了长江流域极端气候事件综合危险性等级.研究结果表明,相对于全国其他地区,长江流域大部分地区极端气候综合危险性等级较高,虽然自1961年以来综合年发生频率呈现弱的线性减少趋势,但自20世纪90年代以来,长江流域极端气候事件发生的危险性相对于全国其他地区明显偏高.通过对不同极端气候事件危险性和变化规律研究,结果表明:长江流域近60年极端干旱事件年发生频率呈现线性减少趋势,与全国他其区域相比较,长江流域大部分地区极端干旱发生的危险性等级都在中级以上,说明长江流域容易发生极端干旱事件;长江流域近60年极端降水事件年发生频率呈现弱的增加趋势,危险性等级指数分析表明,高危险区主要位于长江中下游地区,湖南西部、江西大部、湖北南部等地发生极端降水事件的危险性很高;近60年长江流域大部分地区极端高温事件显著增加,尤其进入21世纪以来发生更加频繁,但相对于全国其他地区,危险性等级较低;近60年长江流域极端低温事件显著减少,但相对于全国其他地区,极端低温事件发生的危险性增加明显.进入21世纪以来,长江流域极端气候事件的综合危险性不断增加,极端高温和极端干旱相伴而生的高温干旱复合型事件频繁发生,极端降水事件和极端低温事件在全国的占比不断升高,造成的社会经济影响越来越严重,说明长江流域加强极端气候事件风险防范的重要性和�This paper uses the daily observation data of 669 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin for the past 60 years(1961—2020) after homogenization and correction, and adopts the extreme value analysis method combining relative threshold and absolute threshold to identify the extreme high temperature events, extreme low temperature events, extreme drought events and extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin in the past 60 years, also the annual occurrence probability and linear change trend were analyzed. Considering the occurrence of extreme climate events across the country based on this, Muti-Extreme events Composite grads Index(MECI) was constructed, and the comprehensive risk level of extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin was analyzed. The research results show that compared with other regions of the country, the comprehensive risk level of extreme climate in most parts of the Yangtze River Basin was higher. Although the comprehensive annual occurrence frequency has shown a linear decrease trend since 1961, the comprehensive risk level of extreme climate events in Yangtze River Basin was significantly higher than that of other parts of the country since the 1990s. Through the individual analysis of different extreme climate events, the results show that the annual frequency of extreme drought events in the Yangtze River Basin has shown a linear decreasing trend in the past 60 years. Compared with other regions of this country, the risk level of extreme drought in most parts of the Yangtze River Basin was above the intermediate level, indicating that Yangtze River Basin was prone to extreme drought events. The annual frequency of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin showed a weak increasing trend in the past 60 years, MECI analysis showed that the high-risk areas are mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the risk of extreme precipitation events was very high in western Hunan, most of Jiangxi and southern Hubei. Extreme high t

关 键 词：极端气候事件 多个极端事件综合等级指标 气候变化 长江流域 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]