农村低保制度能缓解老年人多维贫困吗——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证分析  

Can Rural Dibao Subsidies Reduce Multidimensional Poverty for the Elderly in China—Empirical Evidence from CFPS Dataset

作　　者：宋扬[1,2] 程泽睿 周广肃 荆瑛 SONG Yang;CHENG Zerui;ZHOU Guangsu;JING Ying

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]中国人民大学国有经济研究院 [3]中国人民大学劳动人事学院,北京100872

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2023年第1期25-40,共16页Social Security Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“生命周期视角下最低生活保障制度的全面影响与改革路径研究”(18CJL049);国家社会科学基金重点项目“人的全面发展的理论内涵与实现路径研究”(22AZD114);国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字经济、劳动力市场与共同富裕研究”(22CJY072)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：基于中国家庭追踪调查2012年至2018年的四次调查数据,考察我国农村老年多维贫困状况的变迁,并探究扮演兜底减贫角色的最低生活保障制度对农村老年多维贫困的影响,发现农村老年多维贫困发生率从2012年的34.1%下降到2018年21.3%,总体上有所改善。通过将微观数据与民政部公布的区县层面低保数据相匹配构造工具变量,发现低保救助并没有改善农村老年人的多维贫困状态,反而对健康状况和主观感受有负面影响。但是,低保与新农保形成的制度互补显著降低了老年多维贫困的发生率。机制分析表明,低保救助会减少老人的家人陪伴,进而降低老人的身心健康水平,增加了多维贫困发生率。基于此,建议进一步提高低保金水平,关注老年人的身心健康,以生命周期不同阶段的特殊需求为依据构建多维贫困减贫防贫机制。Using CFPS data from 2012 to 2018,this article first measures multidimensional poverty for the elderly in China over time and then analyzes the impact of rural minimum living guarantee program(Dibao).The paper shows that the incidence of multidimensional poverty for the rural elderly has declined from 34.1%in 2012 to 21.3%in 2018,with an overall improvement.Furthermore,by matching the micro-level data with the county-level Dibao data published by the Ministry of Civil Affairs,this paper constructs instrument variables and finds that Dibao assistance does not improve the multidimensional poverty of the rural elderly,but has a negative impact on their health status and subjective feelings.However,the institutional complementarity of Dibao system and China’s New Rural Pension Scheme(NRPS)significantly reduces the incidence of elderly multidimensional poverty.The mechanism analysis shows that Dibao assistance could reduce family company of the elderly,thus reducing the physical and mental health level of the elderly and increasing the incidence of elderly multidimensional poverty.Based on this,it is suggested to further increase the level of Dibao subsidies,pay attention to the physical and mental health of the elderly,and build a multi-dimensional poverty reduction and prevention mechanism based on based on the special demand of different stages of the life cycle.

关 键 词：老年多维贫困 低保制度 农村减贫 健康 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]