冬奥投资对国内宏观经济影响研究--基于动态CGE模型  

Research on the Impact of Winter Olympics Investment on Domestic Macroeconomy--Based on Dynamic CGE Model

作　　者：张晓旭 娄峰[2] Zhang Xiaoxu;Lou Feng(School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,Jilin University,Dalian 116025,China;Institute of Quantitative&Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2023年第1期176-192,共17页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“区域水平衡机制与国家水网布局优化研究”(2021YF C3200203)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建了奥运动态CGE模型,并模拟测算了2022年冬季奥运会对北京和其他地区的宏观经济影响。研究结果显示:相对于未举办冬奥会的基准情景,2017~2021年北京市的GDP年均提高了0.4645%,冬奥会为北京市新增约20.31万个就业机会;在2017~2021年的建设期内,国内其他地区的GDP年均仅提高0.0199%,在2022年的冬奥会举办期内北京市GDP有望提高0.0324%。This paper constructs a dynamic CGE model for the Olympic Games,and simulates and calculates the macroeconomic impact of the 2022 Winter Olympic Games on Beijing and other regions.The research results show that,compared with the benchmark scenario without the Winter Olympics,Beijing’s GDP has increased by 0.4645%annually from 2017 to 2021,and the Winter Olympics will create about 203100 new jobs for Beijing;During the construction period from 2017 to 2021,GDP growth of other regions in China has increased by only 0.0199%;It is expected to promote 0.0324%in 2022.

关 键 词：冬奥投资 动态CGE 经济效应 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]