基于水资源承载力与城市经济社会发展水平耦合协调度模型的遵义市发展评价  

Development evaluation of Zunyi City based on coupling coordination degree model of water resources carrying capacity and urban economic and social development level

作　　者：安莉娜 范国福 吴迪 熊继东 AN Lina;FAN Guofu;WU Di;XIONG Jidong(POWERCHINA Guiyang Engineering Corporation Limited,Guiyang 550081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司,贵州贵阳550081

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期35-41,共7页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：贵州省水利厅科技项目(KT202007)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2020年《遵义市统计年鉴》和《遵义市水资源公报》,采用多因子的熵权法确定水资源承载力水平和城市经济社会发展水平综合评价指标体系各指标的权重,在此基础上构建了能够反映社会、经济、人口、水量、水质等多因子的水资源承载力与城市经济社会发展水平耦合协调度模型,分析了遵义市现城区和规划城区水资源承载力与城市经济社会发展水平的时空耦合协调关系。结果表明:遵义市现城区和规划城区水资源承载力与城市经济社会发展水平的时空耦合协调度在2011—2020年均呈现总体上升趋势;时间上,现城区耦合协调度受经济社会发展水平的影响较明显,规划城区北扩区域目前经济布局较少,使得经济社会发展水平有所降低,说明城市北扩有利于促进城市经济社会高质量发展;空间上,遵义市现城区水资源承载力与城市经济社会发展水平耦合协调度在发展进程中有明显的空间差异且差异逐渐缩小,规划城区耦合协调度呈现“南强北弱”的格局,说明经济社会发展对水资源需求程度高的区域在南部,未来经济布局可逐步北移、东扩,并继续实行严格的水资源管理制度,优化水资源配置,缓解水资源短缺等问题,保障经济社会可持续发展。Based on Zunyi City Statistical Yearbook and Zunyi City Water Resources Bulletin from 2011 to 2020,the multi-factor entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each index system for the level of water resources carrying capacity and the level of urban economic and social development.The coupling coordination degree model of water resources carrying capacity and urban economic and social development level,which can reflect multiple factors such as society,economy,population,water quantity,water quality and so on,is established to analyze the spatial coupling and coordination relationship of water resources carrying capacity and urban economic and social development level between current urban area and planned urban area of Zunyi City.The results show that the current and planned urban areas of Zunyi City,the spatial-temporal coupling coordination degree between its water resources carrying capacity and the urban economic and social development level shows an overall upward trend from 2011 to 2020.The influence of the economic and social development level on the temporal coupling coordination degree is obvious in the current urban area,and the northward expansion of the planned urban area further strengthens the economic layout,which reduces the level of economic and social development.The coupling coordination degree with the level of urban economic and social development has obvious spatial differences in the development process and the difference is gradually narrowing with a pattern of“strong south and weak north”,indicating that the economic and social development has a high demand for water resources.In the south,the future economic layout can be gradually moved northward and eastward,and continue to implement a strict water resource management system,optimize the water resource allocation,alleviate water shortages and other problems,and ensure sustainable economic and social development.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 城市经济社会发展 耦合协调度模型 遵义市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]