基于动态权重-云模型的大型渡槽安全综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation of large-scale aqueduct safety based on dynamic weight-cloud model

作　　者：王媛 张志慧 任杰[1] 王佟童 刘佳豪 WANG Yuan;ZHANG Zhihui;REN Jie;WANG Tongtong;LIU Jiahao(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Mechanics and Materials,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学力学与材料学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期56-63,共8页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0406906)。

摘　　要：针对传统渡槽安全评价方法忽略了评价指标权重的动态变化,不能实时反映危险因子对渡槽实际运行状态的影响等缺陷,提出了一种基于动态权重-云模型的渡槽安全综合评价方法,引入动态权重模型为评价指标动态赋权,并利用云模型获取评价指标隶属度。将该方法应用于南水北调中线干线工程M河渡槽安全评价并与静态权重模型评价结果进行了对比,结果表明,动态权重-云模型实现了评价指标层权重计算结果随工程运行状态的实时变化,同时对危险因子的识别敏感性更高,提高了评价方法对复杂运行环境下渡槽安全综合评价的适用性和准确性。In view of the defect that the traditional safety evaluation method of aqueduct ignores the dynamic change of index weight and cannot reflect the impact of danger factors on the actual operating state of aqueduct in real time,a comprehensive evaluation method of aqueduct safety based on the dynamic weight-cloud model is proposed,in which the dynamic weight model is introduced to dynamically weight the evaluation index,and the cloud model is used to obtain the membership degree of evaluation index.This method was applied to the safety evaluation of the M River aqueduct in the middle line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and compared with the research results of static weight model.The results showed that the dynamic weight model realized that the calculation result of the weight of evaluation index layer changed in real time with the project operation state,and at the same time had a higher sensitivity to the identification of risk factors,which improved the applicability and accuracy of the evaluation method for the comprehensive evaluation of aqueduct safety under complex operating environments.

关 键 词：渡槽 动态安全综合评价 动态权重 云模型 

分 类 号：TV672.3[水利工程—水利水电工程]