基于改进变权与云模型的煤矿安全状态评价及其应用  

Improved Variable Weight and Cloud Theory Model of Coal Mine Safety Status and Its Application

作　　者：蔡俊杰 李希建[1] 徐畀泽 郭隆鑫 CAI Junjie;LI Xijian;XU Bize;GUO Longxin(School of Mining,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China;Taizhou Special Equipment Inspection and Testing Institute,Taizhou 317700,China;Coal Science and Technology Research Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学矿业学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]台州市特种设备检验检测研究院,浙江台州317700 [3]煤炭科学技术研究有限公司,北京100013

出　　处：《矿业工程研究》2023年第1期59-64,共6页Mineral Engineering Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52164015);贵州省省级科技计划资助项目(黔科合支撑[2022]一般231)。

摘　　要：为了更加合理地评价煤矿安全状态,构建基于改进变权和正态云理论的煤矿安全状态评价模型.由期望、熵、超熵构成的特定结构函数确定状态评判矩阵,得出各评价指标的不同等级确定度.基于博弈论思想对变权理论进行改进,确定指标权重,利用置信度系数作为验证评判参量,得出该模型在2种不同权重下的综合评判结果及其可靠程度信息.研究表明:基于改进变权与云理论模型得出的综合确定度为0.775,状态等级为Ⅱ级,煤矿安全状态评判结果为较安全,与其他方法的评判结果相吻合.该模型是一种简易可靠的煤矿安全风险预测方法.In order to evaluate coal mine safety state more reasonably,a coal mine safety state evaluation model based on improved variable weight and normal cloud theory is constructed.The state evaluation matrix is determined by the specific structural function composed of expectation,entropy and superentropy,and the different levels of certainty of each evaluation index are obtained.Based on the game theory,the variable weight theory is improved,the index weight is determined,and the confidence coefficient is used as the validation evaluation parameter to obtain the comprehensive evaluation results and reliability information of the model under two different weights.The results show that the comprehensive certainty obtained based on the improved variable weight and cloud theory model is 0.775,the state level is II,and the evaluation result of coal mine safety state is relatively safe,which is consistent with the evaluation results of other methods.This model is a simple and reliable method for coal mine safety risk prediction.

关 键 词：煤矿安全 变权理论 正态云模型 云发生器 确定度 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]