新发展格局下的中国最优宏观税负研究  

On Chinas Optimal Macro Tax Burden under the New Development Pattern

作　　者：魏升民 李普亮 梁若莲 Wei Shengmin;Li Puliang;Liang Ruolian

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,北京100142 [2]惠州学院经济管理学院,广东惠州516007 [3]国家税务总局广东省税务局税收科学研究所,广东广州510627

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财政与税务）》2022年第7期79-91,共13页

基　　金：国家税务总局广东省税务局2021年度重点课题(ZD07);广东省哲学社会科学规划专项项目(GD20SQ26)。

摘　　要：宏观税负事关政府职能的履行以及国家治理的成效,立足新发展格局对宏观税负的内在要求,基于供需循环的视角提炼出宏观税负对居民消费、产业结构升级及科技创新的作用机制,并运用联立方程模型实证考察其实际效应,进而估算出中国最优宏观税负。研究发现,宏观税负与居民消费和科技创新呈倒U型关系,与产业结构升级呈U型关系;综合考量新发展格局下的税收政策目标取向,中国宏观税负不宜超过17.7%。当前中口径的宏观税负与最优宏观税负比较接近,与新发展格局的要求基本适应,因此应在现有水平上保持总体稳定。The macro tax burden is concerned with the fulfllment of government functions and even the performance of national governance.Standing on the internal requirements of the new development pattern for the macro tax burden,this paper condenses the action mechanism of the macro tax burden on resident consumption,industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation from the perspective of supply-demand cycle,and empirically investigates the actual impact of the macro tax burden through adopting the simultaneous equation model,to eventually estimate the optimal macro tax burden in China.The study found that the macro tax burden has an inverted U-shaped relationship with residents consumption and technological innovation,but a U-shaped relationship with industrial structure upgrading;comprehensively considering the orientation of tax policy under the new development pattern,the macro tax burden in China should not exceed 17.7%.At present,the medium-caliber macro tax burden,comparatively close to the level of optimal macro tax burden,basically meets the requirements of the new development pattern,and should remain generally stable at the existing level.

关 键 词：新发展格局 宏观税负 最优宏观税负 居民消费 产业结构升级 科技创新 税负 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]