廊坊市一次秋季暴雨预报偏差与历史统计分析  

Deviation of a Rainstorm Forecast in Langfang in Autumn and Historical Statistical Analysis

作　　者：刘淇淇 张馨木 王鹤婷 LIU Qiqi;ZHANG Xinmu;WANG Heting(Langfang Meteorological Bureau Langfang,Hebei 065000)

机构地区：[1]廊坊市气象局,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《现代农业研究》2023年第4期138-144,共7页Modern Agriculture Research

摘　　要：利用NCEP空间分辨1°×1°,时间分辨6 h再分析资料,欧洲中心细网格模式资料等对廊坊市一次秋季暴雨的预报偏差及原因进行分析,并对廊坊市十年来的秋季暴雨过程进行形势场和物理量指标总结。结果表明:(1)本次过程为高空槽、切变线和地面倒槽共同影响的秋季暴雨,雨量分布不均,伴有短时强降水。预报偏差主要表现为强降水预报较实况偏晚、量级偏小,造成暴雨漏报。(2)模式和各级指导预报落区预报基本准确,系统的预报偏差使降水的预报偏慢。(3)预报场和实况的水汽、能量条件均达到夏季暴雨指标,模式对于水汽的辐合预报偏差较大,而实况水汽辐合区的位置与强降水落区较为一致,说明水汽辐合对于本次强降水落区的预报较为重要。(4)模式预报出了弱辐合中心,强度偏弱,位置不精准,结合EC模式的对流性降水预报产品,对于强降水预报有一定指示意义。(5)统计表明,廊坊市秋季强降水不需要急流的水汽输送,且均发生在夜间(20∶00至次日08∶00),本次过程强对流指标均在廊坊市秋季暴雨统计范围内,属于指标偏弱的一类。Using NCEP space resolution of 1°×1°,time resolution for 6 hours and then analysis of data,European Center Fine Grid Forecast Data(EC),etc.to analyze the forecast deviation and causes of an autumn rainstorm in Langfang City,and summarize the situation field and physical quantity indicators of the autumn rainstorm process in Langfang City in the past ten years.The results showed that:(1)The current process was a combination of high-altitude troughs,shear lines and ground inverted troughs in the autumn rainstorms,with uneven rainfall distribution,accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation.The forecast deviation is mainly manifested as the heavy precipitation forecast is late and the magnitude is small,resulting in under-reporting of heavy rainfall.(2)The forecast of the model and the guidance forecast at all levels is basically accurate,and the forecast deviation of the system makes the forecast of precipitation slow.(3)The water vapor and energy conditions of the forecast field and the actual situation have reached the summer rainstorm indicators,and the mode has a large deviation from the radiation forecast of water vapor,and the location of the live water vapor radiation area is more consistent with the heavy precipitation falling area,indicating that the water vapor radiation is more important for the forecast of the strong precipitation and falling area.(4)The model predicts a weak radiation center,the intensity is weak,the position is not accurate,and the convective precipitation forecast product combined with the EC model has certain indicative significance for the strong precipitation forecast.(5)Statistics show that the autumn heavy precipitation in Langfang does not need rapid water vapor transport,and all occur at night(20:00 to 08:00 the next day),and the strong convection indicators of this process are within the statistical range of autumn rainstorms in Langfang City,which belongs to the category of weak indicators.

关 键 词：秋季暴雨 预报诊断 廊坊市 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]