1961—2020年中国小麦生长季干湿时空变化分析  

Spatiotemporal variation of dry-wet climate during wheat growing seasons from 1961 to 2020 in China

作　　者：马雪晴 和骅芸 赵金媛 方彤 张建珍 潘学标[1,2] 潘志华 王靖[1,2] 胡琦 MA Xueqing;HE Huayun;ZHAO Jinyuan;FANG Tong;ZHANG Jianzhen;PAN Xuebiao;PAN Zhihua;WANG Jing;HU Qi(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]中国气象局-中国农业大学农业应对气候变化联合实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2023年第4期608-618,共11页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1901104);内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2020ZD0005)资助。

摘　　要：基于1961—2020年全国524个气象台站逐日数据,以有效降水量、作物需水量和水分盈缺量(有效降水量与作物需水量的差值)为干湿指标,从年际和年代际尺度(P1:1961—1990年;P2:1991—2020年)分析了全国小麦主产区(春麦区:东北、蒙北、西北、北疆;冬麦区:北部、华北、西南、长江中下游、华南、新疆)生长季内气候干湿状况时空分布和演变趋势,并利用SPEI指数评估了小麦种植区的干旱风险。结果表明:1)1961—2020年华南、长江中下游、西南冬麦区小麦生长季降水量大于作物需水量,其他麦区生长季内水分亏缺,新疆冬麦区(443 mm)和北疆春麦区(495 mm)为缺水量高值区。2)近60年全国小麦生长季干旱频率为35.2%~59.6%,四大春麦区、长江中下游冬麦区干旱发生频率较高,均大于50.0%。3)1961—2020年全国小麦生长季有效降水量波动增加,作物需水量呈先降后升趋势,华北、北部冬麦区表现为气候暖干化,其他麦区均呈气候暖湿化趋势。小麦种植区暖湿化的气候机制存在地域间差异,春麦区(东北、蒙北、北疆)和新疆冬麦区为有效降水量增加且作物需水量减少;而长江中下游冬麦区生长季内有效降水量和作物需水量均为增加趋势,但降水量增加幅度大于作物需水量。本文在全国尺度上探究了全国小麦生长季干湿状况时空变化,对农业正确应对气候变化具有重要参考意义。As the intensity of climate change increases,global warming continues to affect the hydrological cycle and precipitation characteristics.Changes occur at various locations owing to interregional differences in the intensity and distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration.To determine the dry-wet climate distribution during the wheat growing season in wheat planting regions of China and the changes that have occurred over the past 60 years,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of China’s dry-wet climate over the inter-annual and inter-decadal periods from 1961 to 2020(P1:1961–1990;P2:1991–2020).To explore how dry-wet climate changes,a series of dry-wet indices,such as effective precipitation,crop water demand,and water surplus and deficiency(difference between effective precipitation and crop water demand)were used.A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index was used in this study for drought risk assessment in cropping regions.In this study,524 meteorological stations with 60-year data records of China’s wheat planting regions were selected and divided into ten wheat planting regions.These regions are as follows.Spring wheat:Northeast China Spring Wheat Region,NES;Northern Inner Mongolia Spring Wheat Region,NIMS;Northwest China Spring Wheat Region,NWS;Northern Xinjiang Spring Wheat Region,NXJS.Winter wheat:Northern China Winter Wheat Region,NW;North China Plain Winter Wheat Region,NCW;Middle-Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Winter Wheat Region,MLYRW;Southwest China Winter Wheat Region,SWW;South China Winter Wheat Region,SCW;Xinjiang Winter Wheat Region,XJW.The results showed that precipitation exceeded the crop water requirements during the wheat growing season in the SCW,SWW,and MLYRW regions over the past 60 years.Other regions experienced water deficits during the wheat growing season,with XJW(443 mm)and NXJS(495 mm)exhibiting the highest water deficit values.Estimates of effective precipitation,crop water demand,water surplus and deficit for the national wheat

关 键 词：小麦种植区 气候变化 干湿状况 水分盈缺量 干旱 

分 类 号：S162.52[农业科学—农业气象学]