人口负增长下经济实现高质量发展的理论思考和政策支持探究  

Theoretical Consideration and Policy Support Exploration for Achieving High-quality Economic Development under Negative Population Growth

作　　者：王金营[1] 李庄园[2] WANG Jinying;LI Zhuangyuan(College of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071000,China;College of Philosophy and Sociology,Hebei University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北大学哲学与社会学学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《人口与社会》2023年第2期1-15,共15页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国经济发展中人口回旋空间及其作用研究”(19ARK002)。

摘　　要：1978年以来,中国经济持续快速增长,改革开放、市场经济的实行和人口转变带来的人口红利是重要推动因素。进入新时代,在低生育率的作用下我国人口由增长转变进入负增长状态,而经济也将由高速增长向高质量发展转换。中国人口和经济这一交叉变动,需要我们去探索人口负增长下未来经济实现高质量中高速发展的动力、可利用的人口优势以及这些优势的触发机制。应调整与人口相关的政策制度支持转变经济发展方式:有效提升生育水平,保障劳动力供给;保持人口均衡发展,推动合理聚集流动;挖掘老龄人力资源,充分利用和释放青年人力资本。同时,促进消费升级,激励技术创新,构建现代化产业体系,充分利用人口规模巨大所形成的市场优势,提升中国在全球产品分工体系中的实际地位,畅通国际国内双循环。从以上多方面综合建立经济发展方式转变与人口发展相适应的政策支持体系,促进人口负增长下经济实现高质量发展。Since 1978,China's economy has continued to grow rapidly.The reform and opening-up,the implementation of market economy and the demographic dividend of demographic transition are important driving factors.Entering the new era,under the effect of low fertility rate,China's population will change from positive to negative growth,and the economy will also transfer from high-speed growth to high-quality development.The cross-change of China's population and economy requires us to explore the driving forces,available population advantages and the trigger mechanism to achieve a high-quality medium-high speed economic development under the negative population growth in the future.Policies and institutions related to population should be adjusted to support the transformation of economic development mode:effectively raising the fertility level and ensuring labor supply;maintaining balanced population development and promoting rational migration;excavating old human resources and making full use of and releasing young human capital.At the same time,it is necessary to promote the upgrading of consumption,encourage technological innovation,build a modern industrial system,make full use of the market advantages formed by the huge population,raise China's actual position in the global product division system,and smooth the international and domestic cycles.On the above,a policy support system suitable for the transformation of economic and population development should be established comprehensively to bolster a high-quality economic development under the negative population growth.

关 键 词：人口负增长 人口规模回旋空间 经济发展方式 政策体系 高质量发展 技术创新 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124