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作 者:秦婷婷 QIN Tingting(China Youth Press,Beijing 100007,China)
出 处:《人口与社会》2023年第2期100-112,共13页Population and Society
基 金:国家社会科学基金项目“低生育水平国家人口相关政策的选择及效果研究”(17BRK022)。
摘 要:放开生育限制并不能有效提振我国人口的生育水平,中国还应该向其他国家借鉴更多样的生育促进政策。其中,英国拥有细致完善的社会福利政策,其总和生育率在低值时与我国当前的水平相当,在相关生育政策的刺激下曾一度接近更替水平,可为我国提高生育水平提供有益的借鉴。英国的总和生育率自1973年低于更替水平2.1以来,深受不同政党相关政策的影响,在以撒切尔为代表的前保守党执政时期、以布莱尔为代表的新工党执政时期、当前保守党执政时期,英国总和生育率总体呈现逐步下降、逐步上升、迅速下降的特点。比较三个时期不同生育政策的效果发现,孕产假政策促进生育的效果有限,儿童公共照料政策始终不能满足实际需要,最能对英国生育水平产生影响的是儿童税收福利政策。英国经验表明:孕产假并非越长越好,合理增加男性的带薪育儿假将有助于减轻生育对女性就业的影响。在挖掘了孕产假政策、早期托育政策的潜力之后,我国可考虑建立更慷慨、更多样、更有针对性的儿童税收福利政策。Releasing the birth restriction cannot effectively boost the fertility level of China's population,China should learn from other countries,among which UK has detailed social welfare policies and its TFR at a low value is equal to China's current level and was once close to the replacement level under the stimulation of beneficial childbearing related policies.UK's TFR has been heavily influenced by different political parties polices since it fell below 2.1 in 1973.UK's TFR declines gradually in pre-conservative period,increases in the New Labour Party period,and rapidly going down in the current Conservative Party period.Of the 3 periods,the effect of maternity policy on promoting fertility rate is limited,the child public care policy cannot meet the actual needs of people,and UK's social policy which has the greatest impact on TFR is child benefit and tax credits policy.The UK's experience shows that:Maternity leave is not the longer the better,and a reasonable increase in paid parental leave for men would help mitigate the impact of childbearing on women's employment.After exploiting the potential influence of maternity leave policy and early childcare policy on promoting fertility,China can consider establishing a more generous child benefit and tax credits policy.
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