基于复杂网络演化模型的新冠危机对经济的冲击研究  

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 Crisis Based on Complex Network Evolution Model

作　　者：路冠平 李江平 LU Guanping;LI Jiangping(Shanghai Gold Exchange,Shanghai 200001,China;School of Management,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海黄金交易所,上海200001 [2]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2023年第1期34-40,65,共8页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61401274);中国博士后科学基金第66批面上项目(2019M661384)。

摘　　要：为研究新冠危机对经济造成的非均衡、非线性冲击,建立了一个基于交易经济学理论的交易网络模型,并在其上模拟新冠危机事件冲击引发经济萧条的演化过程。研究表明:冲击影响下,盈利能力薄弱的中小交易主体将首先出现现金流危机,并通过交易网络在上下游形成危机传染;而企业经营恶化造成的信用降低,将使得经济中利率提高并与交易主体破产互相促进,导致流动性危机与债务危机交相反馈、加速企业的破产并可能引起银行业债务危机;冲击过后,经济恢复可能出现稳定恢复、缓慢衰退和二次危机3种模式。最后提出了降低危机影响的相关政策建议。The Covid-19 crisis impacts the economy with non-equilibrium and non-linear shocks.This paper builds a trading network model based on the theory of trading economics.Using the network model,the evolutionary procedure of the economic depression triggered by the shocks are researched.The study shows that under the impact of shocks,small and medium-sized trading agents with weak profitability will first experience cash flow crisis.Then the crisis contagion is formed in upstream and downstream through the trading network.The credit reduction caused by the business deterioration will make the interest rate in the economy increase and promote each other with the bankruptcy of trading entities.Eventually,it leads to the feedback loop in liquidity crisis and debt crisis,which accelerates the bankruptcy of enterprises and possibly causing a debt crisis in the banking sector.It is found that after the shock,the economic recovery may take three patterns:stable recovery,slow recession and secondary crisis.Finally,the paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to reduce the impact of the crisis.

关 键 词：现金流 交易网络 债务危机 复杂网络 

分 类 号：F069[经济管理—政治经济学]