产业智能化对出口复杂度的影响:兼论人口老龄化的调节作用  

The Impact of Industrial Intelligence on Export Complexity:Also on the Moderating Role of Population Aging

作　　者：张龙鹏 张双志 胡燕娟[3] LONGPENG ZHANG;SHUANGZHI ZHANG;YANJUAN HU(University of Electronic Science and Technology of China;Chengdu University;South China University of Technology)

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学公共管理学院、深圳高等研究院 [2]成都大学师范学院 [3]华南理工大学国家人体组织功能重建工程技术研究中心

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2023年第2期41-54,共14页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链视角下人工智能产业融合的效应与路径研究”(批准号:20CJY009)的资助。

摘　　要：在产业智能化和人口老龄化日益显著的双重趋势下,基于2000年到2014年40个国家14个制造业的数据,本文实证研究了产业智能化对出口复杂度的影响,并同时讨论了人口老龄化的调节作用。从产业智能化对出口复杂度的影响来看,研究结果表明:产业智能化显著地推动了出口复杂度的上升;相对于经济发展水平较高的国家,产业智能化对出口复杂度的提升作用在经济发展水平较低的国家更大;在经济发展水平较高的国家,资本技术密集型制造业的智能化显著提升了出口复杂度,但劳动密集型制造业的智能化却阻碍了出口复杂度的提升;在经济发展水平较低的国家,无论在资本技术密集型制造业,还是在劳动密集型制造业,产业智能化均对出口复杂度具有显著的提升效应,但这一效应在劳动密集型制造业更大。当考虑人口老龄化的调节作用时,研究发现:随着人口老龄化程度的上升,产业智能化对出口复杂度的提升作用也将增强,并且在劳动密集型制造业中表现得更为突出。Under the dual trend of industrial intelligence and population aging becoming more and more significant,based on the data of 14 manufacturing industries in 40 countries from 2000 to 2014,this paper empirically study the impact of industrial intelligence on export complexity,and also discuss the moderating effect of population aging.From the perspective of the impact of industrial intelligence on export complexity,the research results show that the increase in industrial intelligence has a significant role in promoting export complexity.Compared with countries with a higher level of economic development,the effect of industrial intelligence on the complexity of exports is greater in countries with a lower level of economic development.In countries with a high level of economic development,the intelligence of capital and technology-intensive manufacturing has significantly increased the complexity of exports,but the intelligence of laborintensive manufacturing has hindered the increase in export complexity.In countries with a low level of economic development,whether in capital and technology-intensive manufacturing or in labor-intensive manufacturing,industrial intelligence has a significant effect on improving export complexity,but this effect is bigger in labor-intensive manufacturing.When considering the adjustment effect of population aging,the study finds that with the increase of population aging,the effect of industrial intelligence on export complexity will also increase,and it will be more prominent in labor-intensive manufacturing.

关 键 词：出口复杂度 产业智能化 人口老龄化 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F414F49F746.12