考虑性能热衰减和热失控传播的大规模电池储能系统可靠性建模与评估  

Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Large Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems Considering Thermal Degradation and Thermal Runaway Propagation

作　　者：李思颖 叶承晋[1] 丁一[1] 包铭磊 尹逊虎 高强 LI Siying;YE Chengjin;DING Yi;BAO Minglei;YIN Xunhu;GAO Qiang(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,Zhejiang Province,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310007,Zhejiang Province,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]国网浙江省电力有限公司,浙江省杭州市310007

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2023年第6期2202-2211,共10页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52125702)。

摘　　要：功率、能量密度相对均衡的大规模电池储能在新型电力系统中具有广阔应用前景。然而,电池储能的可靠运行与工作环境温度强相关。一方面,异常温度加快电池容量衰减;另一方面,热失控现象极易导致系统严重故障,但现有关于电池储能系统可靠性的研究未有效考虑热效应及其传播的影响。针对此问题,该文提出计及性能热衰减和热失控传播的大规模电池储能系统可靠性分析方法。首先,构建考虑拓扑结构的电池储能系统模糊多状态模型,在故障数据相对缺乏的条件下科学描述电池正常、衰减、完全故障等性能水平和对应概率;结合电池循环寿命模型以及性能分布均值与温度的随变关系,量化不同环境温度下,电池在各时刻的性能衰减程度。然后,从电池组内热量传递角度,建立电池储能系统热失控传播模型,以预测不同电池达到热失控临界温度的时序。在此基础上,构建电池储能系统可靠性评估指标和流程。最后,结合测试系统验证所提模型和方法的有效性,说明单个电池高温下的性能突变对整个储能系统的性能有明显影响。Battery energy storage systems(BESSs)with relatively balanced power and energy density have broad application prospects in new power systems.Meanwhile,the reliable operation of BESS is strongly correlated with temperature.On the one hand,abnormal temperature accelerates battery capacity decay,on the other hand,thermal runaway can easily lead to serious system failures.However,the existing researches on reliability modeling and evaluation of BESS have not considered the impact of thermal effect and its propagation.On this basis,a reliability analysis method for large scale BESS considering thermal degradation and thermal runaway propagation is proposed.First,a fuzzy multi-state reliability model of BESS considering the topology is constructed to scientifically describe the performance levels and corresponding probabilities of batteries in the absence of data.Combining the battery cycle life model and the relationship between the performance distribution and temperature,the performance degradation under different ambient temperatures is quantified.Secondly,from the perspective of heat transfer,a thermal runaway propagation model of BESS is established to predict the time sequence of batteries reaching the critical temperature of thermal runaway.Then,the reliability evaluation process and index of BESS considering the thermal effect are proposed.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified with a test system,which indicated that the performance mutation of a battery cell at high temperatures had a significant impact on the performance of the entire BESS.

关 键 词：电池储能系统 可靠性建模 模糊集理论 多状态系统 热失控传播 

分 类 号：TK02[动力工程及工程热物理]