潜在地震滑坡的概率危险性分析——以陕西陇县为例  

Probability hazard analysis of potential earthquake-induced landslide:A case study of Longxian County,Shaanxi Province

作　　者：付国超 潘华[1] 程江 郑立夫 Fu Guochao;Pan Hua;Cheng Jiang;Zheng Lifu(Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijng 100081,China;Beijng Earthquake Agency,Beijng 100080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国北京100081 [2]北京市地震局,中国北京100080

出　　处：《地震学报》2023年第2期341-355,共15页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：北京市地震局面上项目(BJMS-2022003)资助。

摘　　要：采用第五代地震动参数区划图的潜在震源区划分方案并结合Newmark位移模型,基于陇县工程地质岩性特征及地形高程数据,考虑地震动地形放大效应以及Newmark模型参数的不确定性,得出陕西陇县地区的地震动发生率为50年10%水平下滑坡的失稳概率,根据所得结果将研究区的潜在地震滑坡危险程度分为四个等级:极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区。中、高危险区主要集中于陇县地区的泥岩、粉砂岩以及黄土覆盖地且斜坡坡度大于40°的地区,其中千河及其通关河两岸部分地区的地震滑坡危险性较高。本文结果可为该地区的地震滑坡风险管理和土地规划提供参考。In this paper,the potential focal area division scheme of the Fifth Generation Seismic Parameter Zoning Map of China combined with the Newmark displacement model is adopted.And according to the engineering geological lithology and topographic elevation data of Longxian,the amplification effect of topography on ground motion and the uncertainty of paramet-ers of Newmark model are also considered.Above all,the instability probability of landslide in Longxian county,Shaanxi Province is given on the condition that the earthquake incidence rate is 10%in 50 years.According to the results,potential earthquake-induced landslide in the study area can be divided into four grades:the very low risk area,the low risk areas,the medium risk areas and the high risk areas. And the high risk areas are mainly concentrated in the mudstone, siltstone and loess covered areas with a slope of more than 40° in Longxian. Among them, Qianhe river and some areas on both sides of Tongguanhe river have higher seismic landslide risk. The results can provide a reference for seismic landslide risk management and land plan- ning in this area.

关 键 词：地震滑坡 潜在震源区 Newmark累积位移 地震危险性分析 地震发生率 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]