全球温控目标对我国氢能发展的影响评估  

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Control Targets on Hydrogen Energy Development in China

作　　者：王灿 李浩[1] 张洪秩 杨帆 王兆华[1] Wang Can;Li Hao;Zhang Hongzhi;Yang Fan;Wang Zhaohua(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 10008,China;Department of Planning,Aalborg University,Aalborg 9000,Denmark)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京10008 [2]奥尔堡大学规划系,丹麦奥尔堡9000

出　　处：《技术经济》2023年第2期121-132,共12页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“‘双碳’目标下我国‘资源-环境-经济’协同发展机制与实现路径研究”(72141302);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金“‘碳中和’背景下我国典型流域‘经济-能源-水’耦合机制与政策调控研究”(72104023);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金“基于技术创新预测的氢燃料电池车投资决策机理与激励政策研究”(72104021);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“实现2060‘碳中和’的低成本减煤路径研究”(21JZD027)。

摘　　要：我国高度重视氢能产业发展,加快氢能源规模化部署。本文利用全球变化评估模型(GCAM)探究全球温控视域下我国氢能作为能源载体的差异化发展路径,从经济成本、结构优化、减碳潜力等角度揭示氢能发展趋势。结果表明:①随着减排政策加强、碳价提升,清洁制氢技术的成本优势逐渐凸显,温控1.5摄氏度阈值情景下终端普及率有望达5%,且可再生能源制氢占比接近甚至超过一半;②碳中和情景下,2060年,生物质+CCS(carbon capture and storage)制氢平准化成本最低,煤制氢成本最高,分别为17.0元/千克和60.9元/千克;③氢能利用的碳封存量在碳中和情景下,将由2030年的0.4亿吨提高到2060年的2.6亿吨。氢能将在减缓气候变化、改善空气质量等方面发挥重要作用。China attaches great importance to the development of hydrogen energy industry and accelerates the deployment of hydrogen energy on a large scale.The global change assessment model(GCAM)was used to explore the differentiated development path of hydrogen energy as an energy carrier in China under the global temperature control perspective,and revealed the development trend of hydrogen energy from the perspectives of economic cost,structural optimization,and carbon reduction potential.The results show that with the strengthening of emission reduction policies and the improvement of carbon price,the cost advantage of clean hydrogen production technology is gradually highlighted,and the terminal penetration rate is expected to reach 5%under the temperature control 1.5℃threshold scenario,and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy is close to or even more than half.Under the carbon neutral scenario,in 2060,the levelized cost of hydrogen production from biomass+CCS is the lowest,and the cost of hydrogen production from coal is the highest,which are 17.0 RMB/kg and$60.9 RMB/kg.Carbon sequestration for hydrogen energy utilization will increase from 0.4 billion tons in 2030 to 0.26 billion tons in 2060 under the carbon neutral scenario.Hydrogen energy will play an important role in mitigating climate change and improving air quality.

关 键 词：氢能 温控阈值情景 经济成本 减碳潜力 全球变化评估模型(GCAM) 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]