农业生产成本、农产品价格与农民收入的动态关系——基于PVAR模型的实证分析  

Dynamic Relationship Among Agricultural Production Cost,Agricultural Product Price and Farmers'Income--An Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：郭倩 陈灿煌[1] GUO Qian;CHEN Canhuang(School of Economics and Management,Hunan Institute of Technology,Yueyang 414000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南理工学院经济与管理学院,湖南岳阳414000

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第2期58-69,共12页Journal of Shenyang University:Social Science

基　　金：2019年国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJY115)。

摘　　要：基于2003—2020年的省际面板数据,运用PVAR模型从全国、东部、中部及西部区域层面,分析了农业生产成本、农产品价格与农民收入之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,农业生产成本、农产品价格与农民收入三者间的关系表现出显著的区域异质性;各地区的农业生产成本对农民收入均呈现出显著的负向影响;东部地区的农产品价格对农民收入的正向影响比中部、西部地区更为持久;西部地区的农民收入对农业生产成本与农产品价格的影响比东部、中部地区更为显著。认为应依据各地区的不同情况,出台相关农业生产成本与农产品价格调控政策,确保农民合理收益空间。Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship among agricultural production costs,agricultural product prices and farmers'income from the national,eastern,central and western regional levels using the PVAR model.The results show that the relationship among agricultural production costs,agricultural product prices and farmers'income shows significant regional heterogeneity;the agricultural production costs has a significant negative impact on farmers'income in all regions;the positive impact of agricultural product prices on farmers'income in the eastern region is more lasting than that in the central and western regions;the impact of farmers'income on agricultural production costs and agricultural product prices in the western region is more significant than that in the eastern and central regions.It believes that relevant agricultural production cost and agricultural product price regulation policies should be issued according to the different conditions of each region to ensure the reasonable income space of farmers.

关 键 词：农业生产成本 农产品价格 农民收入 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]