基于似然比原理下正态分布的变点分析方法及其在就诊人次分析中的应用  

Change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle and its application in the number of outpatients analysis

作　　者：康春阳 陈海燕 李旺涛 闻立芳 周飞龙 Kang Chunyang;Chen Haiyan;Li Wangtao;Wen Lifang;Zhou Feilong(Shenzhen Luohu Hospital Group,Shenzhen 518001,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市罗湖医院集团,深圳518001

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2023年第3期230-233,共4页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：深圳市基础研究项目(JCYJ20220530151413031)。

摘　　要：目的:应用似然比原理下正态分布的变点分析方法对深圳市罗湖区某医院就诊人次进行分析,为合理配置卫生资源提供科学依据。方法:收集深圳市罗湖区某医院某日上午8:00-12:00每隔5 min共48个时间段的就诊人次资料( n = 636)。应用均值和方差同时发生变化的单变点分析方法探讨变点发生的时间。 结果:平均每个时间段就诊人次为13.250 0,就诊人次的变点发生时间为8:50( P = 0.000 025),8:00-8:50均值为7.000 0人次,8:50-12:00均值为14.897 4人次。变点前后就诊人次之比为1∶2。 结论:在不需要确定基期或者对比数据的情况下,似然比原理下正态分布的变点分析方法为基于就诊人次的卫生资源合理配置提供了统计分析方法和统计监测新途径。Objective The authors introduced the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle,analyzed the number of outpatients in a hospital of Luohu District,Shenzhen,to provide scientific basis for rational allocation of health resources.Methods The authors collected totally 636 number of outpatients'data from 8:00 to 12:00 a.m.at 48 time windows at 5 minutes intervals in a hospital of Luohu District,Shenzhen,and analyzed it with single change point analysis of simultaneous change of mean and variance,and discussed when the change point occurred.Results The average number of outpatient was 13.2500 for every time window,the change point occurred at 8:50,the probability was 0.000025,the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8:00 to 8:50 was 7.0000,the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8:50 to 12:00 was 14.8974,and the ratio of number of outpatients before and after the change point occurred was 1:2.Conclusion In the case of no need to determine the base period or compare the data,the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the principle of likelihood ratio provides a new way of statistical analysis and statistical monitoring for the rational allocation of health resources based on the number of patients.

关 键 词：变点分析 似然比 正态分布 就诊人次 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]