我国老年人口健康预期寿命变动分析——基于人口普查数据的实证研究  

Analysis of changes in healthy life expectancy of elderly population in China:An empirical study based on census

作　　者：刘晨 王琼 吴炳义[1] 刘军[1] LIU Chen;WANG Qiong;WU Bing-yi;LIU Jun(School of Management,Weifang Medical College,Weifang Shandong 261000,China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院管理学院,山东潍坊261000

出　　处：《中国卫生政策研究》2023年第2期9-15,共7页Chinese Journal of Health Policy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA124);国家社科基金一般项目(18BRK013);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2022MG007)。

摘　　要：目的:探究我国2010—2020年60岁及以上老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异及时空分布特征,为促进健康预期寿命性别平等和地区均衡提供实证依据。方法:基于全国第六次和第七次人口普查数据,使用沙利文法计算我国60岁及以上老年人口健康预期寿命并比较其性别差异及时期变动,采用空间自相关(Moran s I)分析健康预期寿命余寿占比的空间分布特点。结果:健康率随年龄增加而降低,男性老年人口健康率高于女性,性别差异主要集中在高龄段且随着时间缩小。女性的平均预期寿命和健康预期寿命均高于男性且提升幅度大于男性。健康预期寿命余寿占比,随时间扩大的基础上表现为男性高于女性,但性别差异呈缩小趋势;其空间分布特征为东部优于西部,且地区间的聚集程度增强。结论:十年间,我国老年人口健康水平提高,女性在长寿方面存在优势,但生存质量与男性相比仍然存在一定差距;老年人健康预期寿命余寿占比扩大,符合“疾病压缩”假说;同时,健康水平性别差异不断弥合,但地区间非均衡性加深。To explore the gender differences and spatial distribution characteristics of healthy life expectancy of the elderly aged 60 and above in China from 2010 to 2020,and provide an empirical basis for promoting gender equality and balanced development of healthy life expectancy in different regions.Methods:Based on the data gathered in the sixth and seventh censuses,the study figures out the healthy life expectancy,gender differences and changes overtime of the elderly population aged 60 years and over in China with Sullivan method.Furthermore,the study summarizes spatial distribution characteristics of the remaining proportion of the healthy life expectancy with spatial autocorrelation(Moran s I)and LISA tests.Results:It is found out that proportion of healthy elderlies decreases with age,and there are more males than females among the healthy elderlies.Furthermore,this difference is more distinct when it comes to an older age group and it is diminished with time.Women s life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are both longer than those of men,and both have a higher increase than those of men.In a wider time range,the expectancy of remaining healthy life is higher among males than among females,but gender difference is narrowing.The spatial distribution of the proportion of healthy life expectancy and remaining life expectancy show a higher level in the east than in the west,and the aggregation between regions is enhanced.Conclusion:In the past ten years,the health level of China s elderly population has improved,and females show advantages in longevity,but disadvantages in the quality of life compared with males;The proportion of healthy life expectancy of the elderly has expanded,which is in line with the“disease compression”hypothesis;At the same time,gender disparities in health levels are disappearing,but regional imbalances are deepening.

关 键 词：普查数据 健康预期寿命 沙利文法 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]