黄河流域碳排放的时空分布及影响因素研究  

Spatio-temporal distribution pattern and influencing factors of carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：祁强强 徐占军[1] 李娜艳 解晨啸 QI Qiangqiang;XU Zhanjun;LI Nayan;XIE Chenxiao(College of Resource and Environment,Shanxi Agricultural University,Jinzhong Shanxi 030801)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学资源环境学院,山西晋中030801

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2023年第4期577-582,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.51304130);山西省人民政府重大决策咨询课题(No.ZB20211703);山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(No.201803010);山西省软科学研究计划项目(No.2018041060-2);山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(No.2020YJ052)。

摘　　要：基于长时间序列的夜间灯光数据估算2000—2019年黄河流域市域的碳排放,探究了碳排放的时空分布及影响因素。结果显示:(1)2000—2019年黄河流域碳排放量不断增加,但增速有所减缓。高值区、中高值区主要分布在山西、山东、晋陕蒙交界区和一些省会城市及其周边地区。低值区、中低值区主要分布在青海、甘肃和四川等地。(2)从时间变化趋势来看,7个地级市属于迅猛增长型,15个地级市属于较快增长型,55个地级市属于中速增长型,38个地级市属于缓慢增长型。(3)黄河流域碳排放呈现出空间集聚的特点,但随时间有所减弱。高-高集聚区主要分布在山东大部分地级市和山西南部,范围呈缩小趋势。低-低集聚区主要分布在甘肃、青海、四川等地。(4)3个具有显著影响(p<0.01)的因素解释能力由强到弱依次是国内生产总值(GDP)、第二产业占GDP比例和年末常住人口,它们的交互作用解释能力更强。基于以上结果提出如下建议:山东、山西、晋陕蒙交界区作为黄河流域碳减排的重点区域;建立区域协作机制;引导GDP绿色增长。Based on long-term sequnence nighttime light datasets,the carbon emissions were estimated at city level in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019,and spatio-temporal distribution pattern and influencing factors of carbon emissions were discussed.Results were as follows:(1)from 2000 to 2019,carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed an increasing trend,but the growth rate slowed down.High and middle-high areas mainly distributed in Shanxi,Shandong,Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolia junctional areas,provincial capital cities and their surrounding areas.Low and middle-low areas mainly distributed in Qinghai,Gansu and Sichuan.(2)From the perspective of temporal trend,7 prefecture-level cities grew great rapidly,15 grew quite rapidly,55 grew moderately,and 38 grew slowly.(3)Carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed spatial agglomeration but the agglomeration was weakened as time.High-high areas mainly distributed in most of Shandong,south of Shanxi and Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolia junctional areas,but the range was shrinking.Low-low areas were mainly located in Gansu,Qinghai and Sichuan.(4)Three factors had significant impact(p<0.01),ranking as GDP,the second industrial GDP percentage and annual resident population.Nevertheless,the interaction of the three factors was greater than any single one.It was suggested that:Shandong,Shanxi,Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolia junctional areas should be the key areas for carbon emissions reduction;it was necessary to establish a regional cooperation mechanism;green growth of GDP should adopted.

关 键 词：碳排放 空间分布规律 时间变化趋势 黄河流域 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]