CWRF降尺度提高BCC_CSM1.1m对中国夏季降水跨季度动力预测能力  

Improving summer precipitation seasonal prediction in China using CWRF downscaling of BCC_CSM1.1m

作　　者：张焓 梁信忠 汪方[3] 谢冰[3] 李清泉[3] ZHANG Han;LIANG Xinzhong;WANG Fang;XIE Bing;LI Qingquan(Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,MD 20742,USA;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]马里兰大学跨学科地球系统科学中心,美国马里兰州20742 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2023年第2期161-179,共19页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42088101);中国气象局/国家气候中心与南京信息工程大学科研合作项目;美国国家科学基金会资助项目(EAR1903249)。

摘　　要：利用CWRF模式(Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)对国家气候中心BCC_CSM1.1m业务预测模式短期气候预测结果进行中国区域降尺度,并使用1991—2010年3—8月逐日气温降水观测数据评估预测能力。结果表明:CWRF预测地面2 m气温、降水气候平均态的空间分布比BCC_CSM1.1m更接近观测,分布误差更小;在保持总体技巧不低于BCC_CSM1.1m的同时,CWRF对我国华东和华中地区的降水年际变化预测准确率更高;对不同强度的降水预测CWRF表现均优于BCC_CSM1.1 m模式,尤其在极端降水预测准确率上更优。总之,得益于更高的空间分辨率和优化的低空物理过程模拟,CWRF降尺度可以提高中国夏季跨季度降水预测能力。The regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model(CWRF)is used to downscale the National Climate Center’s operational short-term climate prediction based on the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM1.1m).The prediction skill is assessed for daily precipitation and surface air temperature(2 m)from March to August during 1991—2010.As compared to BCC_CSM1.1m,CWRF predicts more realistic seasonal mean precipitation and temperature spatial distributions and resolves more detailed features over mountainous regions with large terrain variations.It also predicts interannual variations in precipitation East and Central China more accurately.Overall,CWRF outperforms BCC_CSM1.1m in predicting precipitation of different intensities,especially extreme events.Benefiting from higher spatial resolution and advanced physical process simulation at lower levels,CWRF downscaling can improve the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in China.

关 键 词：季节预测 夏季降水 降尺度 CWRF BCC_CSM 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]