河北保定百年均一化逐日气温序列的建立及其气候变化特征  

Establishment of homogenized daily temperature series for Baoding in Hebei Province and its climate characteristics over a century-long scale

作　　者：司鹏[1,2,3] 郝立生[2] 傅宁[4] 王敏 赵煜飞 梁冬坡[2] SI Peng;HAO Lisheng;FU Ning;WANG Min;ZHAO Yufei;LIANG Dongpo(Tianjin Meteorological Information Center,Tianjin Meteorological Service,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Climate Center,Tianjin Meteorological Service,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Marine Meteorological Key Laboratory,Tianjin Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 300074,China;School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Shaoguan Meteorological Service,Shaoguan 512028,China;National Meteorological Information Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 10081,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市气象局天津市气象信息中心,天津300074 [2]天津市气象局天津市气候中心,天津300074 [3]天津市气象局天津市海洋气象重点实验室,天津300074 [4]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300 [5]广东省韶关市气象局,广东韶关512028 [6]中国气象局国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2023年第2期297-309,共13页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2020YFB1600103);国家自然基金青年基金资助项目(41905132)。

摘　　要：基于国家气象信息中心收集整理的保定气象站1919年以来逐日最高和最低气温观测数据,首先,通过数据质量控制剔除原始观测资料中因人工观测或记录、仪器故障及数字化人工录入等导致的错误数据;其次,基于天津百年均一化逐日气温数据,利用标准化序列法对质控后的原始观测数据进行延长插补;进而通过两种途径建立的年和月尺度参考序列,利用惩罚最大t检验(Penalized Maximal T,PMT)和分位数匹配法(Quantile-Matching, QM),修正了插补后保定气象站日最高和最低气温序列中因数据插补、迁站和仪器变更等造成的非均一性影响,由此建立了河北保定1912—2019年均一化最高和最低气温日值序列。分析表明,构建的年平均气温距平序列百年尺度的年代际和趋势变化特点与Berkeley Earth-monthly、CRUTS4.03和GHCNV3基本一致,并且与整个京津冀区域相比,很好地反映出保定地区城市快速发展所带来的增暖变化特点。另外,从百年极端温度变化来看,保定地区1912年以来年和季节极端温度也是呈明显的增暖变化,年和秋季极端最低气温(TNn)的增暖趋势分别为0.340℃/(10 a)、0.404℃/(10 a),对应的气温日较差(DTR)分别为-0.118℃/(10 a)、-0.215℃/(10 a)(均通过置信度为95%显著性检验)。This study establishes a homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature series for Baoding in Hebei Province based on daily observations collected by the National Meteorological Information Centre from 1919 to 2019.Quality control is conducted to remove error data resulting from manual observation or recording,instrument malfunctions and digital inputs.Then,missing observations are interpolated using the standardized series method with homogenized daily temperature data in Tianjin over a century-long scale.Significant breakpoints caused by changes in interpolation,station relocation,and instrument manufacturers are detected using a penalized maximal t -test (PMT) with annual and monthly reference series constructed by two means,and adjusted by Quantile Matching (QM) daily reference series from Berkeley Earth-daily data.The characteristics of inter-annual,decadal,and trend changes are consistent with those from Berkeley Earth-monthly,CRUTS 4.03,and GHCNV3.The warming change induced by the rapid urban development in the Baoding region is well reflected when simultaneously compared with the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Furthermore,the warming trends of the annual and autumn lowest minimum temperature (TNn) are 0.340 ℃/(10 a) and 0.404 ℃/(10 a) (95% significance level),respectively,and the corresponding diurnal temperature range (DTR) are -0.118 ℃/(10 a) and -0.215 ℃/(10 a) (95% significance level).The warming change in annual and seasonal temperature extremes in Baoding have also increased significantly since 1912.

关 键 词：百年尺度 日值序列 延长插补 均一化 极端温度变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]