Risk dynamics for marine systems:towards a bio-inspired framework for dynamic risk assessment  

作　　者：Nikolaos P.Ventikos Konstantinos Louzis 

机构地区：[1]School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering,National Technical University of Athens,9 Iroon Politechneiou St,15773,Zografou,Greece.

出　　处：《Transportation Safety and Environment》2022年第3期1-17,共17页交通安全与环境（英文）

摘　　要：The development of innovative, complex marine systems, such as autonomous ship concepts, has led to risk-based approaches indesign and operation that provide safety level quantification and continuous risk assessment. The existing approaches to dynamicrisk assessmentmainly aim at updating accident probabilities for specific risk scenarios, based on knowledge of system operation andfailure, aswell as on past accident and failure information. However, for innovative marine systems that include complex interactions,our ability to identify anything that might go wrong is very limited, which may lead to unidentified risks, and failure data may not beavailable. This paper presents the foundations of a framework for dynamic risk assessment, which is equally applicable to mannedand autonomous ships and mainly relies on information about the safe operational envelope and real-time information regardingdeviations from safety. Inspiration is drawn from how the biological immune system identifies the risk of infection in a dynamicenvironment. The objective is to show the feasibility and benefits of our approach for quantifying the operational risk of marinesystems. This paper provides the conceptual basis for developing ship specific applications and describes a process for dynamic riskassessment that is methodologically based on artificial immune systems. To demonstrate the implementation of our framework, wedescribed, an illustrative example that involves a ship in a grounding scenario. The results show that the bio-inspired assessmentprocess and risk description can reflect the changes of the risk level of a marine system.

关 键 词：Dynamic risk assessment artificial immune systems risk description system risk autonomous ships 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]