Hazard-based duration modelling of merging time interval on freeway on-ramps  

作　　者：Ye Li Jichen Zhu Md Mazharul Haque Jaeyoung Lee 

机构地区：[1]School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,Hunan,China [2]Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China [3]School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane,QLD 4001,Australia.

出　　处：《Transportation Safety and Environment》2023年第1期8-17,共10页交通安全与环境（英文）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71901223);Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2021JJ40746);Innovation-Driven Project of Central South University(Grant No.2020CX013).

摘　　要：Freeway on-ramps suffer high crash risks due to frequent merging behaviours.This study developed hazard-based duration models to investigate the merging time interval on freeway on-ramps based on microscopic trajectory data.Fixed effect,random effect and random parameters Weibull distributed accelerated failure time models were developed to capture merging time as a function of various dynamic variables.The random parameters model was found to outperform the two counterparts since the unobserved heterogeneity of individual drivers was captured.Modelling estimation results indicate that drivers along the merging section with an auxiliary lane perform a smooth merging process and are easily affected by speed variables.Dynamics of leading and following vehicles on the merging and target lanes are found to influence the merging time interval for merging without an auxiliary lane,whereas the influence of surrounding vehicles ismarginal for thosewith an auxiliary lane.The findings of this study identify potential countermeasures for improving safety during the merging process.

关 键 词：hazard-based duration model on-ramp merging trajectory data FREEWAY SAFETY 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]