Research on a forecasting model of tourism traffic volume in theme parks in China  

作　　者：Zhen-yu Mei Hai Qiu Chi Feng Yang Cheng 

机构地区：[1]College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University.866 Yuhangtang Road,Xihu Distric,Hangzhou,310058,China [2]Department of Civil&Environmental Engineering,University of Wisconsin-Madison,1415 Engineering Drive Madison,WI 53706

出　　处：《Transportation Safety and Environment》2019年第2期135-144,共10页交通安全与环境（英文）

基　　金：supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.LY15E080008);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50908205).

摘　　要：In this study,a model based on multiple regression analysis is developed to forecast the tourism traffic volume of theme parks.First,the macro,meso and micro factors affecting traffic passenger volume are analysed.Second,SPSS software is used for multivariate regression analysis on data for 10 theme parks from 2014.A tourism traffic volume forecasting model is then proposed.Finally,related data for 2015 is used to validate the model,with results showing a prediction error of 14.1%.All results show that the model has a high predictive ability.

关 键 词：theme park traffic passenger volume prediction site selecting analysis multiple regression analysis traffic convenience 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]