中国北方未来沙尘起沙通量变化的数值模拟研究  

Modeling Future Changes of the Dust Emission Flux over Northern China

作　　者：赵剑琦 马晓燕[1] 田蓉 ZHAO Jianqi;MA Xiaoyan;TIAN Rong(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室,南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学》2023年第2期359-372,共14页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目42061134009、41975002;第二次青藏高原科考项目2019QZKK0103;国家科技部重点研发专项2019YFA0606800;江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目KYCX22_1151。

摘　　要：本研究利用WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecasting model with online coupled Chemistry)模式对未来中国北方沙尘起沙过程变化进行了模拟预测。为了提高预测结果的准确度,研究综合考虑了气溶胶、温室气体和植被覆盖率等因素对天气、气候和起沙过程的影响。预测结果显示,2016~2029年西北部沙尘源地起沙量高于北部沙尘源地,地形和气候的差异是导致两地起沙过程及其季节变化差异的主要原因。两个沙尘源地四季起沙通量呈总体减少而部分季节增加的趋势,西北部沙尘源地起沙通量在春季总体呈上升趋势,在夏、秋和冬季呈下降趋势;北部沙尘源地起沙通量在春、夏和冬季呈下降趋势,在秋季呈微弱上升趋势。两个沙尘源地各季起沙通量的变化趋势由近地面风速主导,植被覆盖率、降水和地面温度等因素对起沙通量的年际波动有着重要影响。This paper employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the online coupled Chemistry(WRF-Chem)to study future changes in dust emission in northern China.To improve the accuracy of prediction results,this study comprehensively considers the influence of factors such as aerosols,greenhouse gases,and vegetation fraction on the weather,climate,and dust emission processes.The prediction shows that from 2016 to 2029,the amount of dust emission in the northwestern dust source region is higher than that in the northern dust source region.In addition,differences in topography and climate lead to differences in dust emission processes and their seasonal variations in the two regions.Seasonal mean dust emission fluxes in the northwestern and northern dust source regions from 2016 to 2029 show general decreasing trends,whereas some seasons show increasing trends.The dust emission flux in the northwestern dust region shows a weak increasing trend in spring and decreasing trends in summer,autumn,and winter.The dust emission flux in the northern dust source region shows decreasing trends in spring,summer,and winter and a weak increasing trend in autumn.Variation trends of dust emission fluxes in the two regions are dominated by the near-surface wind speed,whereas the vegetation fraction,precipitation,and surface temperature have important effects on the interannual fluctuation of dust emission fluxes.

关 键 词：动力降尺度 WRF-Chem模式 起沙通量变化预测 起沙通量变化驱动因素分析 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]