2021年黄河秋汛洪水调度方案预演及效果评价  

Rehearsal and effect evaluation of the flood regulating scheme for the Yellow River in autumn in 2021

作　　者：王鹏 朱呈浩 WANG Peng;ZHU Chenghao(Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003;Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources(under construction),Zhengzhou 450003)

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,郑州450003 [2]水利部黄河流域水治理与水安全重点实验室(筹),郑州450003

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第4期37-41,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：2021年黄河中下游遭遇罕见秋汛洪水,期间流域干支流水工程联合防洪调度发挥了关键作用。在调度过程中,既要算好洪水总量,又要实现干支流流量过程的精准对接,是一个复杂的决策过程。为确保调度方案的科学性和准确性,提出“先细后粗、先支流后干流”的预演思路,采用逐时段实时修正的方法,实现了科学精细调度黄河中游干支流水库群的目标。对预演效果评价显示,秋汛洪水期间小浪底水库水位预演结果与实测值平均误差0.003m,各支流水库平均误差不超0.13m;花园口站流量预演结果与实测值平均误差23m3/s,调度目标与实测值平均误差32m3/s。评价结果表明黄河中游干支流水库群精细调度技术明显提升,为本次秋汛洪水防御提供了重要支撑。In 2021,the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River encountered rare autumn floods,during which the joint regulating operation of water projects from main channel and tributary rivers of Yellow River Basin played a key role.In the regulating process,it is a complex decision-making process to not only calculate the total flood volume,but also realize the precise connection of the main and tributary flow processes.In order to ensure the accuracy of the regulating scheme,the Yellow River Commission made great efforts to embroider and proposed the rehearsal idea of"first fine before coarse,and first tributaries before main stream",and adopted the method of real-time correction by time period,realizing scientific and fine scheduling of the Yellow River water projects.The rehearsal results show that during the autumn flood period,the average error between the water level prediction results and the measured value of Xiaolangdi Reservoir is 0.003 m,and the average error of each tributary's reservoir does not exceed 0.13 m;the average error between the flow prediction results and the measured value of Huayuankou Station is 23 m3/s,and the average error between the scheduling targets and the measured value is 32 m3/s.Results show that the fine regulating technology of the main-stream and tributary reservoirs in the middle reaches of the Yellow River has been significantly improved,which provides an important support for the flood prevention in this autumn flood.

关 键 词：秋汛洪水 调度 预演 黄河 2021年 

分 类 号：TV62[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1