2021年黄河中游秋汛及天气形势分析  

Summary of the autumn flood and analysis of the weather situation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2021

作　　者：王鹏[1] 靳莉君[1] 刘静[1] WANG Peng;JIN Lijun;LIU Jing(Hydrological Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450004)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会水文局,郑州450004

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第4期74-78,82,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：2021年8月下旬至10月上旬,黄河中游阴雨持续超过40d,并发生7次强降水过程,其中泾渭河、北洛河、汾河、三门峡至花园口区间累计降雨量较常年同期偏多2~5倍,均列有实测资料以来同期第一位。受降雨影响,黄河发生1949年以来最严重的秋汛洪水,其中黄河中下游9d内连续出现3场编号洪水,潼关站发生1979年以来最大洪水,渭河、伊洛河、沁河发生9月同期最大洪水,汾河、北洛河发生10月同期最大洪水。利用水文站报汛数据及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,统计2021年黄河流域秋汛期主要降水特征和洪水过程,分析产生秋汛洪水的降水天气形势。结果表明,本年度秋汛期,亚洲大陆中高纬以西低东高的环流型为主,巴尔喀什湖至贝加尔湖低槽偏深,东亚地区高压脊偏强,同时西北太平洋副热带高压偏北偏强,南亚低值区宽广,稳定的天气形势致使冷暖空气在黄河中游频繁交汇;水汽输送主要依靠西北太平洋副热带高压和孟加拉湾低值系统共同作用,黄河中游表现为异常强盛的水汽通量辐合。From late August to early October 2021,the rainy day lasted for more than 40 days in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,and seven heavy precipitation processes occurred,the cumulative rainfall of Jing-Wei River、Beiluo River、Fenhe River and Sanmenxia to Huayuankou Interzone are 2 to 5 times in the same period in the history,both were the maximum rainfall since the observed data.Influenced by plenty of rainfall,the most serious autumn flood occurred in the Yellow River since 1949,in this period,three numbered floods occurred during nine days in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River,the maximum flood peak occurred at Tongguan hydrological station since 1979,Weihe River、Qinhe River and Yi-Luo River appeared the largest flood process in the same period in September,and the same situation of Fenhe River and Beiluo River in October.In this paper,the flood data and NCEP/NCAR data are used to statistics the main precipitation characterstics and flood process of the Yellow River Basin in 2021,and analyze the precipitation weather situation of the autumn flood.The results show that during the autumn flood season of this year,the synoptic circulation of lower in the west and higher in the east has the mainly influence on the mid high latitude of Asian continent.The low trough from Balkash Lake to Baikal Lake is lower,and the ridge of pressure located in East Asia is stronger.Meanwhile the subtropical high over northwest Pacific is stronger and its position is farther northern,with broad low pressure areas over South Asia,which formed a favorable cold-warm drafts converge conditions under the stable weather situation in the middle Yellow River.The water vapor transport mainly depends on the combination of the northwest Pacific subtropical high and the depression over the bay of Bengal,and the middle Yellow River is extermely strong water vapor flux convergence.

关 键 词：秋雨 秋汛 编号洪水 天气形势 

分 类 号：P458.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV882.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]