基于FSOS模型的巴布亚新几内亚林地利用规划方案探索  

Exploration of Forest Land Use Planning in Papua New Guinea Based on the FSOS Model

作　　者：金钟浩 刘国良 肖文发[3] 于鑫 曾文洁 杨欣宇 程福山 朱建华 JIN Zhonghao;LIU Guoliang;XIAO Wenfa;YU Xin;ZENG Wenjie;YANG Xinyu;CHENG Fushan;ZHU Jianhua(World Wide Fund for Nature Beijing Office(WWF),Beijing 100037,China;Nanjing Jialin System Engineering Ltd,Nanjing 211100 China;Research Institute of Forest Ecology,Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;Beijing Municipal Forestry and Parks Bureau,Beijing 100013,China;College of Forestry,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]世界自然基金会(瑞士)北京代表处,北京100037 [2]南京加林系统工程技术有限公司,南京211100 [3]中国林科院生态与环境保护研究所,北京100091 [4]北京市园林绿化局,北京100013 [5]北京林业大学林学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业资源管理》2022年第S01期135-140,共6页Forest Resources Management

摘　　要：采用以模拟退火算法为原理的中国森林模拟与优化平台FSOS(Forest Simulation Optimization System),初步探讨了巴布亚新几内亚国家层面林地利用规划方案。方案一,继续维持现有方式经营天然林;方案二,选出部分宜林荒地经营人工林,并保护天然林,对其林地进行短期(25年)和长期(200年)利用和保护规划,并与种植棕榈油的方案做对比分析。结果表明:按方案一经营,该地区每年最多生产1 000万m^(3)木材,且天然林将逐渐减少至所剩无几;按方案二经营,人工林木材产量明显大幅度提高,且大部分天然林也得到了有效保护。该经营策略可为巴布亚新几内亚天然林保护和人工林木材生产规划提供参考。Based on the China′s forest simulation and optimization platform FSOS(Forest Simulation Optimization System)using simulated annealing algorithm,this paper preliminarily discussed the forest land utilization planning at the national level in Papua New Guinea.Scenario 1:Continue to maintain the existing mode of natural forest management.Scenario 2:Select part of the wasteland suitable for forest to manage plantations and protect natural forest,and carry out short-term(25 years)and long-term(200 years)utilization and protection planning of its woodland,and compare it with the scheme of planting palm oil.The simulated analysis showed that if scenario 1 was adopted,maximum timber output would be 10 million m^(3) per year,and almost all of the natural forests would lose at the end.If scenario 2 was adopted,the timber output of plantations would significantly increase and most of the natural forests have been effectively protected,with the natural forests being effectively conserved.The result of simulated analysis provides a reference for planning natural forest protection and timber plantation establishment of PNG.

关 键 词：林地利用规划 天然林保护 人工林木材生产 森林碳汇 森林模拟与优化平台 巴布亚新几内亚 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]