以湖北省油菜籽为例的我国农作物收入保险定价研究  

Study on the Pricing of Crop Income Insurance in ChinaTaking Rapeseed in Hubei Province as an Example

作　　者：曹梦亚 Cao Mengya(Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264000)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《中阿科技论坛（中英文）》2023年第4期48-52,共5页China-Arab States Science and Technology Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“巨灾债券定价与风险管理的统计建模研究”(22ATJ005)。

摘　　要：农业保险作为分散农业生产经营风险的重要手段,对推进现代农业发展、促进乡村产业振兴、改进农村社会治理、保障农民收益等具有重要作用。当某种农产品生产更易受到各种自然灾害影响,同时也面临着市场价格波动的风险,农作物收入保险便可成为能够同时应对自然灾害和市场波动的新型保险产品,未来将成为分散农业风险的主要工具。油菜作为世界重要的油料作物之一,同样面临着自然灾害和市场波动的双重风险,因此需要农作物收入保险为其提供相应的保障。本文以湖北省油菜籽为例,选择几种参数分布模型来分别拟合油菜籽的单产和价格序列,结合Copula函数来构建两者的联合分布,并测算出农作物收入保险的费率及保费。实证结果表明,旋转180°后Copula模型能更准确描绘湖北油菜籽之间的相关结构,有助于制定更加准确的收入保险费率,以保障农户的经济利益。Agricultural insurance,as a key means of diversifying the risk of agricultural production and operation,plays a significant role in promoting modern agriculture,bolstering the revitalization of rural industries,improving social governance and safeguarding farmers’interests.Certain agricultural products are more vulnerable to natural disasters and more prone to market fluctuations,and crop income insurance emerged as a new type of insurance that can cope with both natural disasters and market fluctuations,and will become a major tool to diversify agricultural risks in the future.As one of the world’s most important oil crops,rapeseed is exposed to both natural disasters and market fluctuations,and therefore needs the protection of crop income insurance.Accordingly,taking rapeseed in Hubei Province as an example,this paper selects several parametric distribution models to fit the yield and price series of rapeseed respectively,combines Copula function to construct the joint distribution of both,and measures the rates and premiums of crop income insurance.The empirical results show that the Copula model after rotating 180°can more accurately depict the correlation among rapeseed in Hubei,and can set more accurate insurance rates.

关 键 词：农作物收入保险 费率厘定 旋转Copula 油菜籽 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险]