基于学习曲线的安徽省经济增长对水资源需求影响的研究  

Research on the Impact of Economic Growth on Water Resource Demand in Anhui Province Based on Learing Curve

作　　者：潘亚 马媛 PAN Ya;MA Yuan(Anhui Vocational College of City Management,Hefei 230000,China;Taihu Basin Authority of Ministry of Water Resources,Shanghai 200000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽城市管理职业学院,安徽合肥230000 [2]太湖流域管理局水文局(水文局),上海200000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第4期29-38,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：安徽省高等学校科学研究项目(2022AH052376);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400900)。

摘　　要：在用水总量、用水效率的双控约束制度下,水资源逐步成为地区经济社会发展的制约因素,如何科学判断未来一定时期需水总量、科学制定配套政策和技术升级计划,成为事关地区是否能够实现持续、均衡发展的关键问题。以安徽省为例,在对其16地市1999—2020年用水效率变化趋势分析基础上,建立了万元GDP用水量指标与人均GDP的学习曲线方程。据此对安徽省及各地市2025年双控指标进行预测,并结合相关政策、规划计划分析用水总量与效率指标的可行性。结果表明:①安徽各地人均GDP与万元GDP用水量指标呈现显著的负相关关系;②预测2025年安徽省用水总量将缓慢增长至353亿m^(3),而万元GDP用水量可降低至65 m^(3)/万元;③依据现状产业结构及当前经济发展水平,安徽省在“十四五”期间的用水效率的提升潜力不大,仍需要通过配套政策、产业转移等方式缓解水资源供应的压力。Under the rule of the most stringent water resources management,water resources have become a restrictive for regional economic and social development.How to scientifically estimate the water demand in a certain period and scientifically formulate policies and technological upgrading plans has become vital to whether the region can achieve sustainable and balanced development.Taking Anhui Province as an example,based on the analysis of the water consumption efficiency in its 16 cities from 1999 to 2020,the learning curve of the water consumption index of 10000 yuan GDP and per capita GDP was established.Subsequently,water consumption control and water utilization efficiency of 2025 in Anhui Province and other cities were forecast,and their feasibility was analyzed in line with relevant policies and plans.The results show that:①there is a significant negative correlation between the per capita GDP and the water consumption index of 10000 yuan GDP in Anhui Province;②the total water consumption of Anhui province will slowly increase to 35.3 billion in 2025,while the water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP can be reduced to 65 m^(3)/10000 yuan;③according to the current industrial structure and the current level of economic development,the potential of improving the water consumption efficiency in Anhui Province during the 14th five-year plan is not big,and the pressure of water supply still needs to be alleviated through policies,industrial transfer,etc.

关 键 词：最严格水资源管理 用水总量 用水效率 学习曲线 均衡发展 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]