基于BN模型和SWOT法的济南市南水北调生态补偿公众意愿及激励机制研究  

Research on the Willingness of Pay and Incentive Mechanism of Ecological Compensation of South-to-North Water Transfer in Jinan Based on BN and SWOT

作　　者：彭卓越 濮杭荣 黄金柏[1] 吴灏 黄燨 PENG Zhuo-yue;PU Hang-rong;HUANG Jin-bai;WU Hao;HUANG Xi(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,Jiangsu Province,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430064,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225127 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第4期14-22,32,共10页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(52009118);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20200942);江苏省高等学校自然科学研究项目(20KJB570003);扬州市软科学研究课题(202120)。

摘　　要：构建跨流域调水生态补偿机制是调整流域上下游利益关系、促进可持续发展的有效手段之一,公众意愿是建立跨流域调水生态补偿机制的重要基础。通过理论探索、实地调研和模型分析,以南水北调东线受水区济南市为例,开展跨流域调水生态补偿的支付意愿(WTP)及激励机制的分析研究。结果表明:(1)通过参数法和非参数法综合测算得受水区公众WTP值为187.77元/(人·a),可以此作为生态补偿标准的下限值;(2)基于贝叶斯网络模型的敏感性分析,居民是否愿意支付与学历、住房面积有显著的相关关系;居民支付金额与南水北调东线工程重要性认知、家庭人均月收入有显著的相关关系。此外,两者影响因素的重要性排序不完全相同,在制定相关政策时应综合考虑这两个方面的影响因素;(3)基于公众异质性,采用SWOT矩阵分析法从内部公众背景、外部环境政策等角度提出跨流域调水受水区生态补偿的激励机制。本研究旨在为构建跨流域调水工程生态补偿机制提供参考,为社会资本参与水利建设管理提出对策建议。Constructing inter-basin water transfer ecological compensation mechanism for inter-basin water transfer is one of the effective ways to adjust the interest relationship and promote sustainable development in the region.Public’s willingness is an important basis for es⁃tablishing the ecological compensation mechanism of the inter-basin water transfer.Based on theoretical exploration,field investigation and model analysis,the willingness to pay(WTP)value and influencing factors of ecological compensation of inter-basin water transfer project are analyzed in Jinnan,Shandong Province,the water-receiving area of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.The WTP value is 206.29 RMB/(person·year)obtained through the combination of non-parametric and parametric methods.Bayesian network model is employed to explore the influencing factors,it is found that educational background,per capita monthly household income,the recognition of the importance of the project to the city or the country and whether the project has a positive impact on your life have the greater in⁃fluence on WTP.Then,SWOT matrix analysis method is adopted to put forward incentive mechanism from the perspectives of internal public background and external environmental policies.This study is to provide reference for the construction of ecological compensation mechanism of inter-basin water transfer project,and to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for social capital to participate in water conservan⁃cy construction management.

关 键 词：跨流域调水 生态补偿 支付意愿 贝叶斯网络 SWOT矩阵分析法 

分 类 号：TV-9[水利工程] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]