中国女性未婚生育现状及其婚姻进度效应  

Premarital Childbearing of Women in China and Its Impacts on First Marriage

作　　者：金光照 翟振武[1] JIN Guangzhao;ZHAI Zhenwu(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2023年第2期1-14,共14页Population Journal

基　　金：中国人民大学2022年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划成果。

摘　　要：未婚生育状况及其婚姻进度效应是了解第二次人口转变的重要观察点,对于理解中国婚育转变和制定相关政策具有重要意义。但是当前国内研究主要将生育置于婚内讨论,鲜有关注婚前生育。文章基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析中国1980年以后出生女性的未婚生育现状,利用事件史分析方法和倾向值匹配方法考察未婚生育对女性进入初婚的影响。结果表明约6.5%的女性曾经历未婚生育事件,其中超过九成的未婚初育是计划内怀孕的结果,随着出生队列推移,未婚生育女性的比例呈现先升后降的趋势。婚姻登记制度对婚龄的限制、传统事实婚姻惯习、计划生育对男孩偏好和多孩偏好的强化等因素在一定程度上造成了中国女性的未婚生育。从婚姻进度效应来看,未婚生育对女性初婚主要呈现出促进效应,且这种婚姻促进效应随着出生队列的推移有所增强。婚姻登记制度、相关落户制度等社会制度因素与子女中心主义、合法性诉求等个体观念因素的共同作用带来了未婚生育的婚姻促进效应。中国第二次人口转变在未婚生育领域表现出与西方国家不同的发展轨迹,传统观念和行为与现代化建设之间的冲突、错位与磨合是引发中国未婚生育及其婚姻促进效应的主要动力。在中国,生育和婚姻尚未出现“脱钩”,先育往往紧随着后婚,但这种现象可能在传统与现代相互融合的过程中发生改变。Premarital childbearing is an important aspect of the second demographic transition.However,little attention was paid to the premarital childbearing in the current studies.Using data of China Fertility Survey 2017,this study analyses the premarital childbearing status of women born after 1980 in China,and uses event history analysis and propensity score matching to explore the impact of the premarital childbearing on entering the first marriage.The results show that nearly 6.5%of women experienced premarital childbearing,and over 90%of first premarital childbearing was the result of planned pregnancy.With the passage of birth cohort,the proportion of women with premarital birth increased first and then decreased.The restriction of marriage registration system on marriage age,traditional de facto marriage,and the strengthening of boy preference and multi child preference under the one-child policy caused the premarital births of Chinese women.We find that premarital childbearing had a promoting effect on women’s first marriage in China,and this promoting effect has strengthened with the passage of birth cohort.The social system factors such as marriage registration system and household registration system,as well as individual concept factors such as child-centrism and legitimacy appeal have brought about such promoting effect.China’s second demographic transition in the field of premarital childbearing has shown a different development trajectory from that of western countries.The conflict between tradition and modernization leads to China’s premarital childbearing and its relation to marriage,and there is no decoupling between childbearing and marriage in China.However,this phenomenon may change in the process of integration of tradition and modernity.

关 键 词：未婚生育 婚姻进度效应 第二次人口转变 事件史分析 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]