中国省际流动人口流入地宏观选择机制的稳定性——兼论重力模型的理论扩展与实证检验  

The Stability of Macro-Selection Mechanism of Destination of Interprovincial Floating Population in China--Theoretical Extension and Empirical Test of Gravity Model

作　　者：周皓[1] 刘文博 ZHOU Hao;LIU Wenbo(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《人口学刊》2023年第2期80-98,共19页Population Journal

基　　金：2019年国家哲学社会科学基金一般项目:中国流动人口调查的比较研究(19BRK039)。

摘　　要：对流动人口流入地宏观选择机制及其稳定性的讨论有助于深入理解我国省际人口流动的空间模式及未来发展趋势。文章使用2000-2020年间历次人口普查、小普查及相关统计年鉴数据,结合迁移网络理论和新古典经济学宏观理论,在统计检验多种重力模型的基础上,利用分层泊松模型考察社会网络、劳动力规模和地区经济发展差异在省际流动人口流入地选择机制中的作用及其在时间上的稳定性;并在中国情境下对经典的存量重力模型进行理论扩展和实证检验。研究发现:流出地与流入地的迁移社会网络对迁移流的规模与方向起到显著的正向影响,这种作用在历时变化中呈现出极强的稳定性;作为人口迁移流的源头,流出地劳动力人口规模对人口迁移流呈现显著且一致的正向影响;经济因素对人口迁移流的影响具有相对稳定性,地区间的经济发展差异仍然是我国人口迁移流动的重要原因;流出地人口的流动强度对人口迁移流发挥着极强的持续稳定性影响,显现出流出地流动文化在供应端的决定作用。鉴于社会网络在流入地选择机制中的重要作用,传统的存量重力模型应被扩展为社会网络-重力模型;鉴于流出地劳动力规模在省际人口迁移流中的基础作用,我国省际人口迁移流的可持续问题须引起足够的重视。The macro selection mechanism and its stability of floating population’s destination is of great significance to reveal the spatial pattern and future development trend of China’s interprovincial population flow.Based on the data of population censuses,minor censuses and relevant statistical yearbooks from 2000 to 2020,this paper examines the role of migration social network,labor force size and the level of economic development in the mechanism of migration destination selection of inter-provincial migrants,and their temporal stability by using hierarchical Poisson model.The classical gravity model is theoretically extended and empirically tested in the Chinese context.The results show that the migration social network has a significant effect on the scale and direction of migration flow,and this effect shows a strong consistency in the diachronic change.The size of the labor population in origin provinces has a significant and consistent positive impact on the migration flow and becomes the source of the migration flow.The influence of economic factors on migration flow is relatively stable,and the difference of regional economic development is still an important reason for population migration flow in China.The rate of outflow also plays a strong role in the continuous stability of migration flow.Based on the above findings,this paper emphasizes the role of social networks in the selection mechanism of inflow places,and extends the traditional stock gravity model to the social network-gravity model.This paper also reveals the basic source function of labor force scale in the interprovincial migration flow,and discusses whether and how the interprovincial migration flow can be sustained in China.

关 键 词：流动人口 流入地选择 宏观选择机制 重力模型 稳定性 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]