灰色系统理论在旱涝灾害预测中的应用  

Application of Grey System Theory in Drought and Flood Disaster Prediction

作　　者：邓丽仙[1] 杨帆[2] 赵兰兰 DENG Lixian;YANG Fan;ZHAO Lanlan(Kunming Branch of Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China;Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China;Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources(Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring and Forecasting Center,Ministry of Water Resources),Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局昆明分局,云南昆明650106 [2]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106 [3]水利部信息中心(水利部水文水资源监测预报中心),北京100053

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2023年第4期66-70,共5页Water Resources Development and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52179011)。

摘　　要：根据灰色系统理论和建模原理,选取滇池流域1955—2020年降水资料为原始数据,建立旱灾灰色预测GM(1,1)模型;采用牛栏江流域1954—2020年最大流量资料,建立洪灾预测模型;将两个模型的预测值分别与实际旱灾和洪灾发生时间进行对比分析,探讨在水文长期预报中灰色灾变理论的应用。利用模型对流域未来旱涝灾害出现时间进行预测,未来10年内,滇池流域在2026—2027年、2031—2032年存在旱灾风险;牛栏江流域则在2025—2026年、2031—2032年发生洪灾的可能性较大。Based on the grey system theory and modeling principles,precipitation data from 1955 to 2020 in Dianchi Lake Basin are selected as the original data,and a GM(1,1)model for drought disaster prediction is established.A flood prediction model is established using maximum flow rate data from Niulanjiang River Basin from 1954 to 2020.The predicted values of the two models are compared and analyzed with the actual occurrence times of drought and flood disaster,exploring the application of grey catastrophe theory in hydrological long-term prediction.The models are used to predict the occurrence time of future drought and flood disasters in the basin.In the next 10 years,there is a risk of drought in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2026—2027 and 2031—2032,while the possibility of flood disaster occurring in Niulanjiang River Basin is higher in 2025—2026 and 2031—2032.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 旱涝灾害预测 滇池流域 牛栏江流域 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]