一种改进的单站TEC快速估计与短期预报方法  

An Improved Single-Station TEC Fast Estimation and Short-Term Forecast Method

作　　者：姜子欣 章浙涛 何秀凤[1] 李媛 袁海军 何丛佳 JIANG Zixin;ZHANG Zhetao;HE Xiufeng;LI Yuan;YUAN Haijun;HE Congjia(School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Hohai University,8 West-Focheng Road,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Social Science and Law,University of Bristol,12 Priory Road,Bristol BS81TX,UK)

机构地区：[1]河海大学地球科学与工程学院,南京市211100 [2]布里斯托大学社会科学与法律学院,英国

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2023年第5期474-480,共7页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41830110,42004014);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20200530);中国博士后科学基金(2020M671324);江苏省博士后科研资助计划(2020Z412)。

摘　　要：为解决电离层产品大多基于格网形式及传统预报模型精度较低等问题,采用加权函数方法计算单站TEC,并提出一种基于滑动窗口改进的MEA-BP(MW-MEA-BP)预报模型。选取不同纬度的IGS测站,分别对太阳活动低年和太阳活动高年的观测数据进行分析验证。结果表明,本文单站TEC估计方法快速可靠,在短期预报方面,MEA-BP模型较BP模型有明显改进。当TEC变化剧烈时,本文MW-MEA-BP模型的预报精度较BP模型提高71.8%~90.6%,较MEA-BP模型提高13.9%~54.4%。本文研究结果可为定位用户提供先验准确的电离层信息。To solve the problems that most ionospheric products are based on the grid form and the low accuracy of traditional forecast models,we use a weighting function method to calculate single-station TEC and propose a sliding window-based improved MEA-BP(MW-MEA-BP)forecast model.We select the IGS stations at different latitudes to analyze and validate the observations in low and high solar activity years,respectively.The results show that the proposed single-station TEC estimation method is fast and reliable,and the MEA-BP model is a significant improvement over the BP model in short-term forecasting.When the TEC changes drastically,the forecast accuracy of the MW-MEA-BP model improves 71.8%-90.6%compared with the BP model,and 13.9%-54.4%compared with the MEA-BP model.The research can provide a priori accurate ionospheric information for positioning users.

关 键 词：TEC 单站 电离层估计 电离层建模 电离层短期预报 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]