基于改进变权模型的煤层底板突水危险性评价  

Risk Assessment of Coal Seam Floor Water Inrush Based on an Improved Variable-weight Model

作　　者：武亚遵[1,2] 吴鹏 林云 熊慧敏[1] 刘源 王雪奇 WU Yazun;WU Peng;LIN Yun;XIONG Huimin;LIU Yuan;WANG Xueqi(School of Resources and Environmental,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo,Henan 454000;Collaborative Innovation Center for Coalbed Methane and Shale Gas for Central Plains Economic Region,Jiaozuo,Henan 454000)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资源环境学院,河南焦作454000 [2]中原经济区煤层(页岩)气河南省协同创新中心,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《中国煤炭地质》2023年第3期17-23,共7页Coal Geology of China

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(42271041);河南省博士后基金项目(16A170012);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2021GGJS055)。

摘　　要：在目前煤层底板突水评价模型中,变权模型解决了常权模型中权重不变所导致的主控因素指标值被其他指标中和的问题,凸显了主控因素指标值突变的控制作用特征。但变权模型中状态变权函数区间划分不符合正态分布规律,同时,调权参数的确定过于繁琐。针对此,对现有变权模型进行改进,首先将状态变权函数区间由四段式,调整为符合正态分布的三段式,即惩罚区间、不惩罚不激励区间、激励区间。其次,通过分析主控因素指标值归一化累积频率确定变权区间阈值,并分别选取累积频率界限值25%、75%对应值作为各区间的阈值dj1、dj2。最后,通过对调权参数赋初值、微调整,确定最终调权参数,从而构建煤层底板突水的变权评价模型。以三交煤矿5号煤层为例,应用改进的分区变权评价模型对目标煤层底板突水脆弱性进行评价,并与常权评价模型评价结果进行对比分析,发现突水危险区整体分布趋势一致,但局部断层突变处存在明显差异,表明变权模型有效凸显了断层对突水的控制作用,较好地刻画区域底板突水情况,较符合实际。In the current coal seam floor water inrush evaluation model,the variable weight model solves the problem that the index value of the main control factor is neutralized by other indicators caused by the constant weight in the constant weight model,and highlights the control characteristics of the sudden change of the index value of the main control factor.However,the interval division of state variable weight function in variable weight model does not accord with the law of normal distribution of things.At the same time,the determination of adjust weight parameters is too cumbersome.In view of this,the existing variable weight model is improved.Firstly,the state variable weight function interval is adjusted from four-stage interval to three-stage interval in line with the normal distribution of things,that is,penalty interval,no-penalty and no-incentive interval and incentive interval.Secondly,the threshold of variable weight interval is determined by analyzing the normalized cumulative frequency of the index value of the main control factors,and the corresponding values of 25%and 75%of the cumulative frequency limit value are selected as the thresholds d j1 and d j2 of each interval.Finally,through the initial value and micro adjustment of the adjust weight parameters,the final adjust weight parameters are determined,so as to construct the variable weight evaluation model of water inrush from coal seam floor.Taking No.5 coal seam of Sanjiao coal mine as an example,the improved zoning variable weight evaluation model is applied to evaluate the water inrush vulnerability of the floor of the target coal seam,and the evaluation results are compared with those of the constant weight evaluation model.It is found that the overall distribution trend of water inrush risk areas is consistent,but there are obvious differences at local fault mutations.It shows that the variable weight model effectively highlights the control effect of faults on water inrush,and better describes the water inrush situation of regional floor,w

关 键 词：脆弱性评价 变权评价模型 煤层底板突水 变权区间 调权参数 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]