城市道路网络特征对交通事故的作用机理研究  

Urban Road Network Characteristics and Their Influence on Traffic Accidents

作　　者：肖扬谋 谢波[1] 庞哲 XIAO Yangmou;XIE Bo;PANG Zhe

机构地区：[1]武汉大学城市设计学院

出　　处：《南方建筑》2023年第4期61-68,共8页South Architecture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41971179):出行行为视角下城市土地利用对交通事故的作用机制与调控研究。

摘　　要：机动交通快速发展背景下城市道路交通安全问题日益严峻,探讨道路网络对交通事故的作用机理是从交通安全视角开展道路交通规划的关键环节。现有研究聚焦于分析城市道路网络的几何拓扑特征与交通事故的相关关系,较少探讨其中的复杂作用机理。以武汉市主城区为研究单元,在运用网络分析工具测度道路网络拓扑结构指标的基础上,构建结构方程模型刻画城市道路网络几何拓扑特征、交通流量和速度、严重交通事故频率之间的多维关系网络,揭示三者的路径链关系。研究发现:交通速度对严重交通事故的影响效应大于交通流量;相较于拓扑特征,道路网络几何特征对严重交通事故的影响效应更高、作用路径更丰富;中间中心性与接近中心性对交通事故具有直接效应,且作用关系相反;道路网络的连通性提升能够减少区域交通流量,进而降低严重交通事故频率,而增加道路平均宽度会通过提高区域交通流量与交通速度提升交通事故风险暴露水平;提高城市路网密度所获得的正面出行效益大于其所带来的负面出行效益,从而能够改善城市道路交通安全水平。研究结果可以为面向交通安全的城市道路网络规划设计提供理论指导。Urban traffic safety is an increasingly serious issue due to the rapid development of motor vehicles.As a significant factor of the built environment that influences regional traffic flow and the commuting behaviours of residents,road network characteristics have a measurable impact on traffic accident occurrences.Discussing the mechanism of action whereby road network characteristics impact traffic accidents is conducive to understanding the influencing mechanisms of traffic accidents deeply,thus enabling theoretical supports for road network planning from the perspective of traffic safety.Existing studies focus on the correlation between geometric topological characteristics of complicated road networks and traffic accidents,but seldom discuss the mechanism of action.Moreover,depictions of multidimensional,complicated road networks are not precise enough,thus the driving mechanisms of traffic accidents cannot be thoroughly characterised.In this study,topological structural indicators of road networks in the main urban area of Wuhan were measured using network analysis tools.A structural equation model was built to depict the multidimensional relational grids of an urban road network and examine their geometric topological characteristics,vehicle traffic flow and rate,frequency of serious traffic accidents,and relationships between their route chains.Results showed that driving speed's effect on serious traffic accidents was more significant than traffic flow's effect,and both exhibited positive effects.The mechanism of road network topological characteristics'impact on traffic accidents was the single acting path,and there were direct and indirect effects.Compared to road network topological features,the geometric characteristics of a road network demonstrated stronger impacts on serious traffic accidents and richer acting paths.Betweenness centrality and closeness centrality have direct effects on traffic accidents,and such effects were opposite.As such,increasing the connectivity of road networks could decrea

关 键 词：交通事故 道路网络 几何拓扑特征 作用机理 结构方程模型 

分 类 号：TU984.191[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]