省域能源消费结构的空间关联、区域分异与动态演进分析  

Analysis on Spatial Correlation,Regional Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution of Provincial Energy Consumption Structure

作　　者：曹飞 王树勇 CAO FEI;WANG SHUYONG(School of Marxism Xidian University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710071,China)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学马克思主义学院,陕西西安710071

出　　处：《西安电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期43-52,共10页Journal of Xidian University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：陕西省软科学项目(2021KRM111)。

摘　　要：本文基于2003-2019年省际面板数据,采用空间相关分析方法、基尼系数分解方法和Kernel密度估计方法,实证分析了中国省级层面能源消费结构的空间关联、地区差异及其动态演进。研究结果表明:中国省域能源消费结构具有明显的空间关联特征,且以正自相关为主。就地区内差异而言,东部地区内能源消费结构的区域差异最大,中部地区内部能源消费结构的区域差距最小,西部地区内能源消费结构的区域差异居中。就地区间差异而言,能源消费结构的区域差异主要体现为东部-中部及东部-西部之间的差异,且二者均呈波浪式上升态势。就贡献率而言,地区间差异是能源消费结构基尼系数最大的贡献者,在绝大多数年份其贡献率超过50%,能否尽快缩小区域间差异贡献,已经成为优化中国能源消费结构的关键。Kernel密度估计显示,全国及东、西部地区区能源消费结构均向左移动且表现为单峰变宽,能源消费结构在降低的同时区域差异扩大。中部地区密度函数重心也向左移动伴随明显的拖尾,能源消费结构在降低的同时,区域差异扩大且呈现两极分化态势。Based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the spatial correlation,regional differences and dynamic evolution of China's provincial energy consumption structure by using spatial correlation analysis,Gini coefficient decomposition and Kernel density estimation methods.The results show that China's provincial energy consumption structure has obvious spatial correlation characteristics,especially positive autocorrelation.As far as intra regional differences are concerned,the regional differences in energy consumption structure in the eastern region are the largest,that in the central region is the smallest,and that in the western region is the middle.As far as the regional differences are concerned,the regional differences in energy consumption structure are mainly reflected in the differences between the east and the middle and between the east and the west,both of which are rising in waves.As far as the contribution rate is concerned,the regional difference is the largest contributor to the Gini coefficient of the energy consumption structure.In most years,its contribution rate exceeds 50%.Whether the regional difference contribution can be reduced as soon as possible has become the key to optimizing China's energy consumption structure.Kernel density estimation shows that the energy consumption structure of the whole country and the eastern and western regions moves to the left and shows a single peak widening.While the energy consumption structure decreases,regional differences expand.The center of gravity of the density function in the central region also moves to the left with obvious tailing.While the energy consumption structure decreases,the regional difference expands and shows a polarization trend.

关 键 词：能源消费结构 基尼系数 Dagum kernel密度估计 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济]