二轮承包到期后农户土地调整意愿的影响因素分析  

作　　者：尚云逸 王越 陈语轩 安佳利 张新昊 王芳 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学,南京210023 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,南京210014 [3]江苏省扬州市江都区农业农村局,江苏扬州225200

出　　处：《智慧农业导刊》2023年第8期58-62,67,共6页JOURNAL OF SMART AGRICULTURE

基　　金：南京财经大学大学生创新训练计划项目(202210327094Y);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2021SJA0275);南京财经大学2020年度高等教育及改革发展课题(GJGF202018);第二届费孝通田野调查项目资助计划(无编号)。

摘　　要：我国开展土地二轮承包主要集中在1993—2017年,到2023—2027年我国二轮承包即将陆续到期。该文利用全国12个省份599户的调查数据,采用Logit模型,研究农户二轮承包到期时土地调整意愿的影响因素。结果发现,政策惯性对提升农户土地调整意愿具有正向影响,人均承包面积与转出耕地占总承包面积比例对农户土地调整意愿具有负向影响;从异质性影响来看,政策惯性在农业主产区、土地转入户和无非农就业群体能够较为显著地增强农户土地调整的意愿。该文探究二轮承包到期后农户土地调整意愿的影响因素,对于二轮延包方式的选择具有重要意义。The second round of land contracting in China is mainly concentrated in 1993要2017,and the second round of land contracting is about to expire from 2023 to 2027.Based on the survey data of 599 households in 12 provinces in China,this paper uses the Logistic model to study the factors affecting farmers'willingness to land adjustment when the second-round contract expires.The results show that policy inertia has a positive impact on farmers'willingness in land adjustment,while per capita contracted area and the ratio of transferred arable land to total contracted area have a negative impact on farmers'willingness to adjust land.From the perspective of heterogeneity,policy inertia in the main agricultural producing areas,land transfer households and non-agricultural employment groups can significantly enhance the willingness of farmers to adjust land.This paper probes into the influencing factors of farmers'willingness to adjust land after the expiration of the second round of contract,which is of great significance for the choice of the mode of second round extension.

关 键 词：家庭联产承包 土地调整经历 调整意愿 二轮延包 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]