2022年油料油脂市场分析与2023年展望  

Oilseeds and Edible Vegetable Oils Market Situations in 2022 and Its Prospects for 2023

作　　者：冯诗博 张剑波[1] Feng Shibo;Zhang Jianbo(China International Electronic Commerce Center,Beijing 100176)

机构地区：[1]中国国际电子商务中心,北京100176

出　　处：《农业展望》2023年第2期21-26,共6页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2022年,在极端天气导致巴西大豆大幅减产、俄乌冲突影响全球供应链安全性、印度尼西亚食用油出口禁令等多重因素影响下,国际油料油脂价格大幅上涨。受国际市场连带影响,国内油料油脂进口量减价高。同时,国内油料大幅减产,加工企业库存持续偏低,国内食用油供给收紧,价格持续上涨。2023年巴西大豆产量预计将创纪录,棕榈油库存处于历史同期高位,印度尼西亚保持增产潜力,全球油料油脂供需关系将有所改善,国内食用油价格有望回落。但全球供应链存在不稳定性,叠加主要农资化肥价格上涨,国际油料油脂价格波动风险仍较大。由于中国油料油脂进口依存度高、来源集中、受国际影响较大,且国内食用油消费需求有望回暖,油料扩种存在一定难度,预计价格回落空间有限。基于此,建议进一步完善油料油脂市场监测预警机制,加强对油料油脂市场的监管力度,提高国产油料自给率。In 2022,under the influence of multiple factors,such as extreme weather leading to a significant reduction in the production of Brazilian soybean,the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting the safety of the global supply chain,and the ban on the export of Indonesian edible vegetable oils,the prices of international oilseeds and edible vegetable oils rose significantly.Due to the joint influence of the international market,the import volume of domestic oilseeds and edible vegetable oils reduced at a high price.At the same time,the production of domestic oilseeds reduced significantly.The inventory of processing enterprises continued to be low.The domestic edible vegetable oils supply was tightened,and the price continued to rise.In 2023,Brazil's soybean production is expected to set a record.Palm oil inventory is at a high level in the same period of history.Indonesia maintains its potential for increasing production.The supply and demand relationship of global oilseeds and edible vegetable oils will be improved,and domestic edible vegetable oils prices are expected to fall back.However,the global supply chain is unstable.The prices of major agricultural materials and fertilizers are rising.And the risk of international oilseeds and edible vegetable oils price fluctuation is still high.China's oilseeds and edible vegetable oils are highly dependent on imports,with concentrated sources,and are greatly influenced by the international market.What is more,the domestic consumption demand for edible vegetable oils is expected to recover,and there are certain difficulties in the expansion of oil crops.It is expected that the domestic price will fall back in a limited space.Based on this,it was suggested to further improve the monitoring and warning mechanism of oilseeds and edible vegetable oils market,strengthen the supervision of oilseeds and edible vegetable oils market,and improve the self-sufficiency rate of domestic oilseeds.

关 键 词：油料 油脂 进出口 供求分析 价格回落 展望 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]