中国经济发展的区域不平衡及收敛性分析  

Analysis on Regional Disequilibrium and Convergence of China’s Economic Development

作　　者：龙春涛[1] 宋香荣[1] 王爱银[1] Long Chuntao;Song Xiangrong;Wang Aiyin(School of Statistics and Data Science,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第7期106-112,共7页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71463054);国家社会科学基金资助项目(18BJL072);自治区社会科学基金项目(19BYJ050)。

摘　　要：文章利用2010—2019年我国31个省份的人均GDP面板数据,使用Dagum基尼系数对经济发展区域不平衡和其来源以及东、中、西三大地区内部和地区间不平衡进行测度,并进一步利用σ收敛以及考虑空间效应的绝对β收敛进行检验。结果表明:经济发展总体不平衡趋于缩小,东部地区经济发展最不平衡,中部地区不平衡性不断扩大,西部地区不平衡性不断缩小且西部地区经济发展逐渐赶超中部地区。经济发展的不平衡来源中区域间不平衡的贡献最大,其中,东西部以及东中部地区间不平衡远大于中西部地区。经济发展水平存在σ收敛,2018年以后东部地区经济发展水平有σ收敛趋势,西部地区存在σ收敛,中部地区呈σ发散;全国及东部和西部地区经济发展水平的绝对β收敛均显著,中部地区不存在绝对β收敛。Based on the per capita GDP panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses Dagum Gini coefficient to measure the regional imbalance and sources of economic development,as well as the internal and inter-regional im⁃balances in the eastern,central and western regions,and further usesσconvergence and absoluteβconvergence considering spatial effects to conduct the test.The analysis results go as below:The overall imbalance of economic development tends to nar⁃row;the eastern region is the most unbalanced;the imbalance of the central region continues to expand and the imbalance of the western region continues to narrow,and the economic development of the western region is gradually catching up with the central region.Among the sources of unbalanced economic development,the contribution of inter-regional imbalance is the greatest,and the imbalance between east,west and east and central regions is much greater than that between central and western regions.There isσconvergence in economic development level.After 2018,there isσconvergence trend in the eastern region and west⁃ern region,andσdivergence in the central region.The absoluteβconvergence of economic development level is significant in the whole country as well as in the eastern and western regions,while there is no absoluteβconvergence in the central region.

关 键 词：经济发展 区域不平衡 基尼系数 收敛性分析 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]