技术变革视角下移动通信代内创新和代际演进及未来发展展望  

Intra-generation Innovation and Inter-generation Evolution of Mobile Communication and its Future Development Prospects in the Perspective of Technological Change

作　　者：康辉 窦文章[1,3] 文志成 Kang Hui;Dou Wenzhang;Wen Zhicheng(School of Software and Microelectronics,Peking University,Beijing 102600,China;China Mobile Group Beijing Company Limited,Beijing 100007,China;Peking University Institute for Strategy Studies,Beijing 100091,China;Industrial Organization and Enterprise Organization Research Center of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116012,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学软件与微电子学院,北京102600 [2]中国移动通信集团北京有限公司,北京100007 [3]北京大学战略研究所,北京100091 [4]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116012

出　　处：《创新科技》2023年第4期81-92,共12页Innovation science and technology

摘　　要：第一代到第五代移动通信在发展过程中不断进行代内创新和代际演进。纵观每一代的发展历程可知,在业务需求和外在技术的共同推动下,移动通信经由标准制定、产品研发、技术扩散,进而逐步形成移动产业生态。而构成移动产业生态的业务、网络和终端等三大构件,在技术、市场和规制等三大作用力的影响下,推动移动通信实现代际演进和跃升。基于三重螺旋模型的内核区、外场域以及循环流的特性,可以全面分析6要素之间的作用关系。创新性地将生态系统与三重螺旋模型相结合,创新性地构建移动生态创新循环型螺旋发展分析框架,并借助移动通信的技术特性,对每一代移动通信代内创新与代际演进的机制进行解析,进一步明确每一代移动通信创新和应用的规律及特征。可以发现,每一代移动通信内部都包含突破式创新和渐进式创新,代际间演进机制也因分析模型中业务流、架构流以及终端流的特性而有所不同,奇偶代的创新性无明显差异。The first generation of public mobile telecommunication technology(1G)has been commercially available since the 1970s,and 5G is now commercially available worldwide and 6G R&D has been initiated.On average,mobile telecommunication technologies undergo intergenerational transitions every ten years,with continuous improvements in services and perfor⁃mance,and constant disruptive and incremental innovations.So,what are the characteristics of intra-generational innovation and inter-generational evolution,and what are the rules of disrup⁃tive and incremental innovation in mobile telecommunication?Each generation of mobile telecommunication technology includes the development stages of standardization,product R&D,technology diffusion and then the gradual formation of mobile industry ecosystem,etc.The intra-generational innovation mechanism can be analyzed with the help of mobile telecommunication industry ecology theory.Services and applications,networks and architectures,the user terminals and equipment is the three key components of mobile tele⁃communication ecosystem,while technologies and standards,markets and users,regulation and policy are the three main influencing factors of mobile telecommunication ecosystem.If the three major components of the ecosystem are not coordinated,new ecological position will produce,at the same time the changes in the three external major forces will also lead the development of in⁃novation.Therefore,the interaction between the six elements may generate innovation and further promote upgrading.In the inter-generational evolution of mobile telecommunication,each component has both inheritance and breakthrough,so there is an upward spiral characteristic between different gen⁃erations.In order to analyze the inter-generational evolution law,this paper innovatively com⁃bines the ecosystem theory with the triple helix model and constructs a theoretical model of mobile telecommunication"triple helix"innovation,in which the three major components and three major forces of the m

关 键 词：移动通信 代内创新 代际演进 产业生态 三重螺旋 

分 类 号：TN929.5[电子电信—通信与信息系统]