全球天然气供需格局变化及对中国天然气安全供应的思考  

Changes of the Pattern of Global Natural Gas Supply and Demand andThought on the Security of Chinese Natural Gas Supply

作　　者：黄维和 周淑慧[2] 王军[2] HUANG Weihe;ZHOU Shuhui;WANG Jun(Chinese Academy of Engineering;PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国工程院 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2023年第2期1-12,20,共13页Petroleum and new energy

基　　金：中国工程院2021年国家高端智库重点课题“碳中和愿景下我国天然气发展战略研究”(2021-GDZK-02)。

摘　　要：天然气作为高效清洁低碳化石能源,在“碳中和”背景下被认为是未来与可再生能源融合发展的伙伴。中国受资源禀赋影响,近年来天然气对外依存度呈上升趋势,在俄乌冲突对全球能源产业链造成严重冲击背景下,提高中国天然气供应安全的韧性和弹性意义重大。在分析俄乌冲突对全球天然气供需格局影响及欧盟应对俄罗斯减停供气举措的基础上,研究了全球天然气供需格局变化对中国的影响,从加快天然气储备能力建设、构建“多元灵活充裕”进口通道、建立国际资源采购与销售长期合同机制、健全法律法规提升治理能力等方面,提出了保障中国天然气供应安全的举措建议。As a kind of effective and clean low-carbon fossil energy,natural gas is conceived as a partner with the renewable energy for the integrated development against the background of“carbon neutrality”.Due to the resource endowment,China’s dependence on foreign natural gas has been on the rise in recent years.Therefore,it is of vital importance to increase the resilience and elasticity of China’s natural gas supply security in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,which has severely impacted the global energy industry chain.On the basis of the analysis on the influence brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the pattern of the global natural gas supply and demand and the EU’s response to Russia’s gas supply cut,this paper studies the influence of the change of the global natural gas supply and demand pattern on China.Besides,it proposes the measures and suggestions regarding the security of China’s natural gas supply from the perspectives of accelerating capacity building for natural gas reserves,building the“diversified,flexible and abundant”import paths,setting up long-term contract mechanism for international resource procurement and sales and improving laws and regulations to enhance governance capacity.

关 键 词：天然气 俄乌冲突 能源安全 对策 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]