基于PVAR模型的农业生产托管·人工成本价格与水稻产量动态研究  

Dynamic Study on Agricultural Production Trusteeship,Labor Cost Price and Rice Yield Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：段昌忠 DUAN Chang-zhong(Economics and Management School of Yangtze University,Jingzhou,Hubei 434023)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2023年第7期212-216,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：基于2004—2020年长江流域省市有关面板数据,构建面板向量自回归模型,引入农业生产托管、人工成本价格因素,分析农业生产托管和人工成本对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,水稻生产托管对水稻产量有负向冲击影响,但冲击较小且平稳;人工成本的增加会提高水稻产量,对水稻生产托管的影响短期内不显著;水稻生产托管、人工成本和水稻产量三者之间存在动态交互效应。基于此,提出了完善农业托管体系、降低水稻人工投入、提升水稻规模化水平等建议,以促进水稻等粮食作物的高质量发展。Based on the relevant panel data of provinces and cities in the Yangtze River basin from 2004 to 2020,this paper constructs a panel vector autoregression model,introduces the factors of agricultural production trusteeship and labor cost price,and analyzes the impact of agricultural production trusteeship and labor cost on rice yield.The results showed that rice production trusteeship had a negative impact on rice yield,but the impact was small and stable;the increase of labor cost will increase rice yield,and the impact on rice production trusteeship is not significant in the short term;there is a dynamic interaction among rice production trusteeship,labor cost and rice yield.Based on this,this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the agricultural trusteeship system,reduce rice labor input,and improve the scale of rice to promote the high-quality development of rice and other food crops.

关 键 词：农业生产托管 人工成本 水稻生产托管 PVAR 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]