人口政策对传染病流行病学负担的影响探究——基于水痘动态传播模型  

The Impact of Population Policy on the Epidemiological Burden of Infectious Diseases——A Study Based on the Dynamic Transmission Model of Varicella

作　　者：冯黄于飞 方海 FENG Huang-yu-fei;FANG Hai(School of Public Health,Peking University Beijing,100191,China;PKU China Center for Health Development Studies,Beijing,100191,China;Peking University Health Science Center-China Center for Disease Control and Prevention Joint Center for Vaccine Economics,Beijing,100191)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100191 [2]北京大学中国卫生发展研究中心,北京100191 [3]北京大学医学部-中国疾病预防控制中心疫苗经济学联合研究中心,北京100191

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第2期73-80,共8页Population and Development

摘　　要：中国在2021年5月开始实施三孩生育政策,人口政策的变化往往会导致人口特征发生相应的改变。在传染病的疾病负担估计中,除流行病学特征以外,人口学参数的选择也是非常重要的一部分。以水痘为例,采用Leslie人口预测模型以及MSEIR水痘传播动态模型,探究人口政策对传染病模型估计流行病学负担的影响,并对中国水痘流行病学负担进行准确估计。研究发现,在不同人口政策实施下,中国的人口数量及年龄结构变化有较大差异,这种差异对水痘的流行病学负担造成了较大影响。在实施三孩政策后,中国水痘的流行病学特征会发生改变,在2028和2048年左右会出现两个发病高峰。因此在传染病模型中尽可能准确地对人口特征进行计算是未来传染病流行病学负担研究中的重要一环。China began implementing the three-child birth policy in May 2021,and changes in population policies often lead to corresponding changes in population characteristics.The choice of demographic parameters in addition to epidemiological characteristics is also a relatively important part of the estimation of the disease burden for infectious diseases.In this study,the Leslie population prediction model and the MSEIR varicella transmission dynamic model were used to explore the impact of population policy on the estimated epidemiological burden of the infectious disease model and to provide accurately estimates of the epidemiological burden of varicella in China.This study found that under the implementation of different population policies,there is a large variation in the changes in the population size and age structure in China,and this variation has a large impact on the epidemiological burden of varicella.The epidemiological characteristics of varicella in China will change after the implementation of the three-child policy,with two peak incidences occurring around 2028 and 2048.Therefore,calculating population characteristics as accurately as possible in infectious disease models is an important part of future studies on the epidemiological burden of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：人口政策 水痘 流行病学负担 

分 类 号：C913.4[经济管理]