成渝地区空间经济结构时空演变、驱动因素及分布动态演进  

Spatio-temporal Evolution,Driving Factors and Dynamic Evolution of Spatial Economic Structure in Cheng-Yu District

作　　者：廖乐焕[1] 张涛 LIAO Lehuan;ZHANG Tao(College of Economics,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2023年第2期14-20,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BMZ074);云南省哲学社会科学规划一般项目(YB2019020)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2020年四川省15个地级市和重庆市中心城区及20个区(县)的面板数据,分析成渝地区空间经济结构演化特征;建立动态空间嵌套和动态空间半参数模型,挖掘其驱动要素;使用高斯核密度估计法刻画经济结构动态演化趋势。结果表明:成渝地区经济结构不断优化,中部“塌陷”问题得到一定程度缓解;成渝地区总体上并没有形成第三产业“回流效应”,并且第三产业对经济发展的贡献乏力,而城镇化和人力资本水平开始持续接力;成渝地区存在“城镇化水平”阈值效应,省际间及第三产业发达与落后地区间驱动因素存在异质性;成渝地区总体上城镇化水平与第三产业发展存在正向“M”型非线性关系,政府干预可以缩短边际递减效应持续性,市场配置可以延长边际递增效应时效性;四川省除成都市以外的地区经济开始后起发展,而重庆市则表现平平;成渝地区各区域之间产业结构不仅存在横向“拔河效应”,其内部二、三产业也存在纵向动态“拔河效应”;成渝地区局部区域的经济发展出现了极化趋势,但这种差异在不断缩小。Based on the panel data of 15 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province and 21 districts(counties)in Chongqing Municipality from 2011 to 2020,the spatial economic structure evolution characteristics of Cheng-Yu District were analyzed.The dynamic space nesting and dynamic space semi-parameter model are established,and the driving factors are mined.Gaussian kernel density estimation is used to describe the dynamic evolution trend of economic structure.The results show that the economic structure of Cheng-Yu District is constantly optimized,and the“collapse”problem in the central part is alleviated to a certain extent.On the whole,there is no“return effect”of tertiary industry in Cheng-Yu District,and the contribution of tertiary industry to economic development is weak,while urbanization and human capital level began to continue to relay.There is a threshold effect of“urbanization level”in Cheng-Yu District,and the driving factors are heterogeneous between provinces and between developed and backward regions in service industry.On the whole,there is a positive M-shaped nonlinear relationship between urbanization level and service industry development in Cheng-Yu District.Government intervention can shorten the continuity of diminishing marginal effect,and market allocation can prolong the timeliness of increasing marginal effect.Sichuan Province begin to developing lag with the exception of Chengdu,while Chongqing is flat;There is not only horizontal“tug-of-war effect”in the industrial structure among Cheng-Yu District,but also vertical dynamic“tug-of-war effect”in the internal secondary and tertiary industries.The economic development of some areas of Cheng-Yu District appears polarization trend but is shrinking.

关 键 词：空间经济结构 时空演变 驱动因素 动态空间嵌套模型 高斯核密度估计 成渝地区 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]